OECD Economic Surveys: United States 2022
The United States economy rebounded strongly from the depths of the pandemic recession, aided by a large and enduring government policy response. However, Russia’s war against Ukraine and strong inflationary pressures have dampened the economic outlook. The administration is reinforcing public welfare through packages that invest in infrastructure and the climate transition, but an ageing population means fiscal pressures are on the horizon. In response, further efforts should focus on both broadening the tax base and improving public spending efficiency, particularly in the areas of health and infrastructure. A persistent long-term challenge has been the hollowing out of the middle class, which has experienced stagnating incomes and rising costs of living. Two pressing policy challenges for this group relate to improving childcare and the climate transition. Expanding public investment in childcare can improve its affordability for the middle class and benefit female labour force participation. In addition, the impact on the middle class of policies to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 should be taken into account. An important aspect will be ensuring that active labour market policies and place-based policies are in place to tackle labour market disruptions as jobs reallocate from high-carbon to low-carbon activities.
SPECIAL FEATURES: POLICY CHALLENGES FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS
Selected policy challenges for the American Middle Class
The American middle class has shrunk in size since 1970 according to most definitions. This “hollowing” out of the United States income distribution could result in disillusionment, diminished political engagement, and declining trust in institutions. The American middle class faces two major challenges, among others. First, child care costs in the United States are high and availability is low. Improving enrolment in child care has the potential to reverse the fall in female labour market participation since the financial crisis and result in improved well-being and economic growth. Public funding for child care programmes should be raised, and programme eligibility should be widened to benefit middle-income parents. Second, the climate transition will entail major changes to middle-class lifestyles. Reductions in US household emissions from housing and transportation will be key to achieving the overall emission reduction targets, and may prove costly. Workers in carbon-intensive sectors of the economy and households living in regions that rely on carbon-intensive activities will be affected as resources shift to greener sectors. A national climate strategy should be developed that explicitly takes into account emissions inequalities and the redistributive effects of climate policies. Active labour market policies will be key to achieving a just transition, and existing home weatherisation programmes should be expanded to cover the middle-class.
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