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Documents de travail du Département des Affaires économiques de l'OCDE

Documents de travail du Département des affaires économiques de l’OCDE recouvrant toutes les activités de ce département : conjoncture économique, analyse politique et projections ; politique fiscale, dépenses publiques et fiscalité ; questions structurelles dont le vieillissement, la croissance et la productivité, la migration, l’environnement, le capital humain, le logement, les échanges et les investissements, les marchés de l’emploi, la réforme réglementaire, la concurrence, la santé et d’autres thèmes.

English, French

Population ageing and government revenue

Expected trends and policy considerations to boost revenue

Population ageing is expected to result in significantly higher government spending in many OECD countries in the coming decades. This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic consequences of population ageing for government revenue in a framework consistent with the OECD long-term model. If the labour and capital income shares in GDP remain constant and pension income increases in relation to GDP, the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio will increase slightly. However, this will not be enough to cover the total increase in government spending due to population ageing. If governments do not mitigate spending pressures by structural reforms or cuts in pension entitlements, they will have to boost tax revenue significantly to prevent public debt from expanding. In many countries, it will not be possible, nor advisable, to completely finance the increase in long-term spending with only one tax instrument as it would require a massive rise in the tax rate, with risks of ensuing distortions. Thus, governments will have to choose mixes of tax increases, accounting for growth, equity and political considerations. This paper reviews these considerations for several specific tax categories.

English

Keywords: pensions, tax policy, tax revenue, population ageing, public finances
JEL: H24: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; H55: Public Economics / National Government Expenditures and Related Policies / Social Security and Public Pensions; I38: Health, Education, and Welfare / Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty / Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Policy; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs; E17: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / General Aggregative Models / General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; H21: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Taxation and Subsidies: Efficiency; Optimal Taxation; J14: Labor and Demographic Economics / Demographic Economics / Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination; H23: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
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