1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

The Future of Housing: Policy Scenarios

By combining fresh estimates of housing supply and prices with recent long-term projections for their fundamental drivers such as population, income and interest rates, this paper produces scenarios for residential investment and real house prices up to 2050. For half of the covered countries, projected increases in house prices are large enough to outpace real incomes, thereby further eroding housing affordability. The paper illustrates and quantifies how housing policies can make a difference. Removing mortgage interest relief eases price pressures and can contribute to more affordable housing. Likewise, streamlining land-use governance and easing rental control can help unlock housing supply, make housing markets more efficient and, ultimately, housing more affordable.

English

JEL: R31: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location / Housing Supply and Markets; R21: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / Household Analysis / Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Housing Demand; R52: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / Regional Government Analysis / Regional Government Analysis: Land Use and Other Regulations; R14: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / General Regional Economics / Land Use Patterns; H7: Public Economics / State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
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