1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

The drivers of Norway's house prices

In this paper, we explore the drivers of house prices in Norway, using a cross-country panel framework. Empirical results confirm that house prices are determined by numerous demand and supply factors, including income, demographics, macroeconomic conditions, stock of housing and institutional features. The results suggest that high and rising house prices in Norway are principally driven by market fundamentals – high household incomes, wealth, low interest rates and a growing population. Yet, despite strong fundamentals, comparing predicted house prices as estimated by the model and observed house prices suggests that house prices in Norway have been overvalued to a degree since the global financial crisis. Some structural and regulatory features of the Norwegian housing market also put upward pressure on prices: the favourable tax treatment of home ownership, strict rent controls and lax tenant-landlord regulations. Improving further the responsiveness of housing supply to demand could also ease price pressures.

English

Keywords: Norway, house prices, land-use and rental regulations, housing market, mortgage markets, panel estimation
JEL: H20: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General; R38: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location / Production Analysis and Firm Location: Government Policy; R31: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location / Housing Supply and Markets; R21: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / Household Analysis / Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Housing Demand; H24: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; G21: Financial Economics / Financial Institutions and Services / Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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