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Is the German Middle Class Crumbling? Risks and Opportunities

image of Is the German Middle Class Crumbling? Risks and Opportunities

Thriving middle classes are the backbone of democratic societies and strong economies, but in many countries, they face mounting pressure as their economic strength is eroding relative to higher-income households. Real wages and incomes for most middle-class households have grown only very slowly, and rising expenditures have been putting further pressure on living standards. Meanwhile, globalisation, digitalisation, and demographic change are eroding job opportunities for middle-skilled workers, who risk sliding into lower-paid employment. The COVID-19 crisis has accentuated socio-economic divides and may end up accelerating some of the above trends. This publication builds upon the OECD’s publications on the middle class (Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class) and social mobility (A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility). It demonstrates that the German middle class is similar in size as in peer countries, but substantially smaller than it was in the mid-1990s. Lower middle‑class households face an increased risk of slipping out of the middle; meanwhile, upward mobility into the middle has declined, particularly for workers in “typical” middle-class occupations. Employment growth forecasts point to further occupational polarisation. The review proposes policy options for strengthening the employability of middle-class workers, creating good-quality, future-oriented jobs, and boosting middle‑class disposable incomes.

English

Foreword

Thriving middle classes are the backbone of democratic societies and strong economies, but in many OECD countries they face mounting pressures as a result of stagnating incomes, rising expenditures, and greater labour market uncertainty. As evidenced in the OECD report Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class,published in 2019, middle incomes have been growing much more slowly than high incomes for more than three decades. Over the past 30 years median incomes increased by a third less than the incomes of the richest 10% across the OECD, while the incomes at the very top have surged in many countries. Sluggish income growth coincided with an increase in the costs of a middle‑class lifestyle. Across the OECD, prices for housing, health, and education have risen faster than inflation. Meanwhile, labour market trajectories have become more uncertain. Rapid integration of global supply chains, fast and transformative technological change, and population ageing have resulted in labour market polarisation, and one‑in-six middle‑income workers are employed in jobs that face high risk of automation across the OECD on average.

English

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