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OECD Employment Outlook 2024

The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market

image of OECD Employment Outlook 2024

The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will have profound impacts on the labour market and the jobs of millions of workers. Aggregate effects on employment are estimated to be limited. But many jobs will be lost in the shrinking high-emission industries, while many others will be created in the expanding low-emission activities. This edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the transition (“green-driven jobs”), including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them to jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers out of them towards new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. Particular attention is devoted to upskilling and reskilling strategies to facilitate workers’ transition into fast-growing, green-driven occupations. The distributive impacts of climate-change mitigation policies are also examined, with a focus on carbon pricing and options to redistribute its tax revenue to those most impacted. As usual, the first chapter of the Outlook assesses recent labour market developments (including wage trends), but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.

English Also available in: French

Foreword

The OECD Employment Outlook provides an annual assessment of key labour market developments and prospects in OECD member countries. Each edition also includes several chapters that focus on specific aspects of the functioning of labour markets and the implications for policies to promote more and better jobs. The 2024 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the net-zero transition, including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them with jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers from these industries to new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. The distributive impact of climate change mitigation policies is also examined. The first chapter assesses recent labour market developments, but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.

English Also available in: Italian, French

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