OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
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- ISSN : 18151973 (en ligne)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
Globalisation and Inflation in the OECD Economies
Over the past 25 years inflation has moderated considerably in all OECD economies. At the same
time, the production of many goods and services has become increasingly internationalised and the level of
trade between the OECD and non-OECD economies has risen markedly. This paper investigates the extent
to which the observed changes in the inflation process can be attributed to the increasing integration of
non-OECD economies into the global economy. The results of the analysis show that i) import prices have
become a more important driver of domestic consumer prices since the mid-1990s; ii) the sensitivity of
inflation to domestic economic conditions has declined whereas the sensitivity to foreign economic
conditions has risen, working through import prices; and iii) the strong GDP growth in the non-OECD
economies over the past five years has contributed to the growth of real oil and metals prices. A scenario
analysis shows that globalisation has put upward pressure on inflation via higher commodity prices and
downward pressure via lower non-commodity import prices with the latter effect having dominated in most
OECD economies.
Mots-clés: inflation, simulation, monetary policy, globalisation
JEL:
E31: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Price Level; Inflation; Deflation;
E52: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / Monetary Policy;
E37: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications;
F15: International Economics / Trade / Economic Integration
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