OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.
- ISSN : 18151973 (en ligne)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy
This paper develops and applies a simple “conditional growth” framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point recent empirical evidence about the importance of total factor productivity and human capital in explaining current cross-country disparities in
GDP per capita levels. Other distinct features of the projection framework include human capital projections by cohorts and implicit allowance for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on future growth in employment levels.
In the baseline projection, world GDP would
grow in PPP terms by about 3 ¾ % per year on average over the period 2005-2050. When expressed in constant market exchange rates, taking into account future Balassa-Samuelson effects, this projection falls
roughly in the middle of the range of long-run scenarios recently developed in the context of greenhouse gas emission projections. The sensitivity of the projection to total factor productivity and population growth assumptions is significant, however, and compounds with deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty.
Mots-clés: long run, projections, human capital, cohorts, growth
JEL:
O57: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economywide Country Studies / Comparative Studies of Countries;
Q54: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming;
O11: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development;
O47: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence;
Q43: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Energy / Energy and the Macroeconomy;
O43: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Institutions and Growth
- Cliquez pour accéder
-
Cliquer pour télécharger le fichier PDF - 713.33KBPDF