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Documents de travail du Département des Affaires économiques de l'OCDE

Documents de travail du Département des affaires économiques de l’OCDE recouvrant toutes les activités de ce département : conjoncture économique, analyse politique et projections ; politique fiscale, dépenses publiques et fiscalité ; questions structurelles dont le vieillissement, la croissance et la productivité, la migration, l’environnement, le capital humain, le logement, les échanges et les investissements, les marchés de l’emploi, la réforme réglementaire, la concurrence, la santé et d’autres thèmes.

Anglais, Français

Measuring and assessing the effects of climate policy uncertainty

This study proposes a new indicator of Climate Policy Uncertainty based on newspaper coverage frequency. The indicator currently includes 12 OECD Member Countries and covers the period 1990-2018. The index spikes near major political events and during major discussions around potentially significant climate policy changes. Using a global firm-level dataset, the empirical analysis shows that Climate Policy Uncertainty is associated with economically and statistically significant decreases in investment, particularly in pollution-intensive sectors that are most exposed to climate policies, and among capital-intensive companies. In addition to annual series, the study also provides the indicator at higher frequencies of monthly and quarterly levels, and develops sub-indices that capture the direction of climate policy uncertainty associated with a strengthening or a weakening of climate policies for a sub-set of countries.

Anglais

Mots-clés: beliefs, investment, Uncertainty, climate policy
JEL: G10: Financial Economics / General Financial Markets / General Financial Markets: General; O32: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; D83: Microeconomics / Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty / Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness; Q58: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Environmental Economics: Government Policy; D22: Microeconomics / Production and Organizations / Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
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