1887

OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.

Anglais

Mots-clés: business tendency, economic measurement, economic statistics, cyclical indicators, business surveys, business cycles, economic research, business investment, consumer surveys, economic indicators, economic cycle, cyclical fluctuations, short-term, economic analysis

Reverse-engineering the business cycle with Petri nets

Petri nets are used to extract information from the complex and negative eigenvalues of a von Neumann model employing the US sector-level use tables from 1997 to 2013. The complex eigenvalues show a cyclical component having a period of about 10 years. Sectors that contribute most to the cyclical component are agriculture, mining, retail trade, construction, and utilities. Negative eigenvalues indicate the instability in the economy from 1997 to 2009. In 2010 a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation boundary is crossed, beyond which the economy exhibits damping. The point of critical damping is approached in 2012. In 2013 the economy exhibits over-damping.

Keywords: Petri net, von Neumann growth model, Leontief model, eigenvalue, business cycle, use table, Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, over-damping

JEL classification: C65, C67, E32

Anglais

JEL: C65: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling / Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools; E32: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Business Fluctuations; Cycles; C67: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling / Input-Output Models
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