1887

OECD Working Papers on Fiscal Federalism

This series covers issues related to intergovernmental fiscal relations and local/regional public finance, such as: tax and spending assignment across government levels; intergovernmental grants; fiscal equalization; local and regional public service efficiency; inter-jurisdictional tax competition; and macroeconomic issues such as intergovernmental fiscal management and sub-central fiscal rules. Many of these working papers are outputs of the OECD Network on Fiscal Relations Across Levels of Government. Related working papers on fiscal federalism issues are also published in other OECD working paper series on tax policy, economics, public governance and regional development. An integrated list of key papers produced by the Fiscal Network can be found at http://oe.cd/fiscalnetwork.

(Note: numbers 1, 6 and 8 are available in the OECD Economics Department Working Papers, as numbers 465, 626 and 705.)

Anglais

Riding the rollercoaster

Subnational debt in turbulent times

With interest rates at their highest levels in two decades, subnational governments (SNGs) are grappling with growing debt sustainability concerns. This paper investigates SNGs’ financing vulnerabilities by examining their debt levels and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. It provides an in-depth analysis of SNG debt portfolios, with a particular focus on marketable debt or bonds. While most SNG bonds have fixed rates and long maturities, some jurisdictions are significantly exposed to interest rate and foreign currency risks. Simulations reveal that interest expenses could rise substantially for some SNGs. Yet, worryingly, the variation in borrowing costs among SNGs within countries is often limited, suggesting potential weaknesses in market discipline. To navigate these challenges, the paper briefly explores how well-crafted fiscal rules, tax autonomy, and insolvency frameworks can help mitigate risks. It also highlights the need for further assessment of bank loans, as systematic information remains scarce. The paper provides insights for policymakers seeking to address risks and inform future reforms of SNG bond markets, reinforcing market discipline and bolstering fiscal resilience.

Anglais

Mots-clés: subnational debt, interest rates, market discipline, debt sustainability, fiscal rules, insolvency
JEL: H74: Public Economics / State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations / State and Local Borrowing; E43: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Money and Interest Rates / Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; H77: Public Economics / State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations / Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism; Secession
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