Systemic Thinking for Policy Making
The Potential of Systems Analysis for Addressing Global Policy Challenges in the 21st Century
We live in a period of profound systemic change, and as in similar periods in the past, there is bound to be considerable instability and uncertainty before the new society and economy take shape. We have to identify actions that will shape change for the better, and help to build resilience to the inevitable shocks inherent in, and generated by, the complex system of systems constituted by the economy, society and the environment. These challenges require updating the way policies are devised and implemented, and developing more realistic tools and techniques to design those policies on the basis of appropriate data. In Systemic Thinking for Policy Making world experts from the OECD and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) pool their expertise and experience to propose new approaches to analysing the interconnected trends and issues shaping today’s and tomorrow’s world. The authors argue that to tackle planetary emergencies linked to the environment, the economy and socio-political systems, we have to understand their systemic properties, such as tipping points, interconnectedness and resilience. They give the reader a precise introduction to the tools and techniques needed to do so, and offer hope that we can overcome the challenges the world is facing.
Social Protection in the Face of Digitalisation and Labour Market Transformations
It is shown how systems analysis can facilitate policy responses to complex labour-market changes, including from digitalisation and technological progress. A simple systems map covering linkages and interactions between technology adoption, alternative work arrangements, wages, and social protection illustrates how qualitative system mapping can provide a holistic perspective and enable a systematic exploration of connections between elements of a complex system. The map illustrates how systems analysis facilitates consideration of the behaviour of a complex system by decomposing it into sub-processes that can be verbally described in a straightforward and relatively simple way. From this, policy makers can obtain a broad view of the drivers of policy outcomes. Agent-based modelling (ABM) can complement a systems mapping approach. These models, including one maintained by IIASA, provide a “sandbox” for exploring the consequences of linkages and feedback effects for individual agents and for the system as a whole.
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