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In this paper, we consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account certain stylized facts of the business cycle, such as asymmetries in the phases of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given in real-time. First, we introduce the various threshold models and we discuss both their statistical theoretical and empirical properties. Especially, we review the classical techniques to estimate the number of regimes, the threshold, the delay and the parameters of the model. Then we apply these models to the Euro-zone industrial production index to detect in real-time, trough a dynamic simulation approach, the dates of peaks and throughs in the business cycle.

The notion of mutual accountability among development partners for their respective commitments, responsibilities, and performance in pursuit of shared goals was first recognised in the Monterrey Consensus. The Mutual Review of Development Effectiveness gives concrete expression to this notion. It was initiated by the NEPAD Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee (HSGIC) and developed by the ECA and OECD jointly over the period 2002-2004.

Earlier studies in the OECD project on decoupling estimated static models of crop production incorporating risk aversion, following the analytical framework in OECD (2001). In contrast, this paper studies primarily dynamic models of crop investment. The province of Manitoba is selected as an example of Canadian prairie crop production, and investment is defined as current expenditure on machinery and equipment for Manitoba crop production (the data are not crop specific). This is the first econometric study of dynamic crop investment decisions for Canada, and as far as can be ascertained this is the first econometric study for any country of dynamic crop investment under risk aversion. Econometric results are used to simulate impacts of agricultural programmes on crop investment.

This paper is intended to clarify and facilitate discussion on areas that are an important part of the decoupling debate. This has been done using standard economic techniques and some illustrative examples.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the notion of decoupling with a view to improving understanding among economists, policy makers and agricultural trade negotiators, all of whom use the term in their deliberations but often with quite different meanings. The approach taken is conceptual or theoretical - designed to improve understanding of the different ways in which agricultural policies affect production and trade.

This paper was prepared for the OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (formerly called the Annex I Expert Group) for the purpose of providing useful and timely input on specific topics relevant to international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The papers do not represent the views of the OECD, the IEA, or their member countries, rather they are Secretariat information papers intended to help inform countries as well as the UNFCCC audience on key technical issues in the international climate change negotiations.

This report provides an overview of the main trends in financial flows to developing countries (official flows and private investments) and their environmental dimensions. It then examines the conditions attached to these flows in order to ensure that the environmental performance of the projects to which they are destined is taken into account ("supply side"). Next, it provides an overview of the domestic policy context ("demand side"), and the necessary conditions to ensure better environmental performance of investments. The report finishes with a summary of the main findings and suggestions of further steps to strengthen linkages between investment, development and environment.
The annex describes the results of analysis on the relationship between environmental management and performance and structural characteristics of facilities which are typically associated with multinational enterprises (MNEs).

This paper examines the implications of the fourth republican constitution on university education in Nigeria. Specifically, the paper discusses the educational provisions of the new democratic constitution in Nigeria and how they are likely to affect the planning and administration of university education in the post military era. The paper contends that the nascent democracy in Nigeria makes a democratic governance of universities in the country imperative.