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The notion of mutual accountability among development partners for their respective commitments, responsibilities, and performance in pursuit of shared goals was first recognised in the Monterrey Consensus. The Mutual Review of Development Effectiveness gives concrete expression to this notion. It was initiated by the NEPAD Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee (HSGIC) and developed by the ECA and OECD jointly over the period 2002-2004.

In this paper, we consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account certain stylized facts of the business cycle, such as asymmetries in the phases of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given in real-time. First, we introduce the various threshold models and we discuss both their statistical theoretical and empirical properties. Especially, we review the classical techniques to estimate the number of regimes, the threshold, the delay and the parameters of the model. Then we apply these models to the Euro-zone industrial production index to detect in real-time, trough a dynamic simulation approach, the dates of peaks and throughs in the business cycle.

This article discusses issues regarding budget process rules in the context of the current pattern of rising fiscal deficits. It begins by explaining the premise that budget process rules have multiple objectives, and so must be judged according to multiple criteria. Prominent among those criteria, given the apparent economic sluggishness of the early years of the 1990s and the resulting fiscal deficits, are how any particular set of rules might facilitate economic recovery and growth, but also maintain fiscal responsibility and public credibility.

The deviation cycles in the manufacturing industry of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter. Turning points, low- and high-growth phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these deviation cycles. A regression based test statistic is applied to test for duration dependence. Moreover, the international linkage between the cyclical motions in the manufacturing industry of two countries is investigated by measuring the degree of synchronisation. In addition to measuring the cyclical fluctuation, a composite leading indicator is constructed which replicates and predicts the deviation cycle in the manufacturing industry. This composite leading indicator is a single index composed of economic, financial and expectation variables possessing leading properties.

The author is grateful to Jyoti Rahman, David Gruen, Lewis Evans, Ben Dolman, Robert Ewing, Graeme Davis, Janine Murphy, Gene Tunny, Dave Turner and Sveinbjörn Blöndal for helpful comments in preparing this paper. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Treasury or the Australian Government.

This paper was prepared for the OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (formerly called the Annex I Expert Group) for the purpose of providing useful and timely input on specific topics relevant to international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The papers do not represent the views of the OECD, the IEA, or their member countries, rather they are Secretariat information papers intended to help inform countries as well as the UNFCCC audience on key technical issues in the international climate change negotiations.

This review contains the Main Findings and Recommendations of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and the report of the Secretariat. It was prepared with examiners from Sweden and Japan for the Peer Review meeting held on 12 September 2006. The review welcomed the Netherlands’ strong commitment to policy coherence for development and to maintaining high levels of development aid. The Committee noted that the Netherlands gives strong attention to issues of aid quality and uses innovative approaches to enable recipient countries to lead their own development agenda. It identified a number of recommendations (e.g. continuing efforts towards geographic and sector concentration, ensuring that spending targets do not jeopardise the principles of aid effectiveness, developing a more coherent strategy with respect to private sector development, and developing overall aid effectiveness and conditionality strategies) to assist the Netherlands in pursuing its efforts to improve the effectiveness of its development co-operation programmes.

This review contains the Main Findings and Recommendations of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and the report of the Secretariat. It was prepared with examiners from the United States and Italy for the Peer Review meeting held on 31 May 2006. The review welcomed the United Kingdom’s strong commitment to the Millennium Development Goals and to increase development aid to 0.7% of its Gross National Income by 2013. The Committee recognised the effectiveness of the United Kingdom’s distinctive development co-operation model, characterised by a strong legislative basis, clarity of mission and unified programme under a Cabinet Minister. It identified several opportunities (e.g. new tactics in working with donors, identifying policy coherence priorities, more strategic involvement of civil society, greater institutional clarity around humanitarian aid) to make improvements that would better place UK development co-operation to address the future challenges of scaling up aid volume, moving into more difficult operational environments in fragile states and clearly demonstrating development results.

This review contains the Main Findings and Recommendations of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and the report of the Secretariat. It was prepared with examiners from Luxembourg and New Zealand for the Peer Review meeting on 22 November 2006. Among the main issues covered were: the welcome move on the part of the Greek government to strengthen its aid policies and development co-operation system and its humanitarian assistance to victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami; the significant funding to provide education and health services to large numbers of migrants from the neighbouring region, though these costs are not ODA eligible under the DAC reporting rules; the need to address urgently the challenge of implementing Greece’s political commitment to reach the 0.51% ODA/GNI target by 2010; the need to announce a clear strategy for Greece’s aid as the framework for the medium term programme in terms of country and sector priorities and allocation among aid channels, and to strengthen policy coherence for development as a government objective; the importance of reinforcing public and political support for Greek development co-operation; the need to pursue the consolidation of the development co-operation system and to develop new ways of programming and delivering aid.