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The Millennium Declaration set 2015 as the target date for halving the number of people living in extreme poverty. Exceptional progress in some developing countries makes achieving that goal globally a realistic possibility. However, many countries will fall far short, and up to 1 billion people are likely to remain destitute by the target date. Why are some countries doing better than others? This paper seeks to answer this question by looking for shared characteristics of twenty-five developing countries posting extraordinary success in reducing extreme poverty over the past twenty to twenty-five years. These countries were compared using indicators of their macro-economic characteristics and, especially, their agricultural economic characteristics. The countries chosen for analysis constitute a highly diverse mix. The group includes some of the poorest and some of the richest developing countries in the world, representing virtually all geographic regions. The countries also differ greatly in their systems of governance and economic management. Yet, they are surprisingly similar in their achievements, not only in reducing poverty, but across the broad range of macroeconomic and agricultural economic performance measures used to compare them. Findings from time-series, cross-section regression analysis reveal that while economic growth generally was an important contributor to poverty reduction, the sector mix of growth mattered substantially, with growth in agricultural incomes being especially important.

In its 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) produced an Efficient World Scenario (IEA, 2012) to assess how implementing only economically viable energy efficiency measures would affect energy markets, investment and greenhouse emissions (GHG). The IEA analysis found that in order to halve global primary energy demand over 2010-2035, additional investments of USD 11.8 trillion in more efficient end-use technologies would be necessary. Using the OECD ENV-Linkages macro-economic model, this report simulates the economic and environmental impacts which the IEA Efficient World Scenario implies...

This paper discusses the economic impacts of the phase-out of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), which was provided for under the 1994 Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). It presents an overview of the integration process of textile and clothing products into the GATT, takes stock of the most recent changes in the global textile and clothing (T&C) markets, and analyses some major economic impacts and strategies adopted by producers in OECD and non-OECD countries to survive in the post-MFA global competitive arena.

National security is a basic responsibility of national governments, but it is also intangible. What can economic analysis contribute? Benefit-cost analysis has rarely been applied because of the ambiguous and commons nature of the benefits. Our group at the University of Southern California’s Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism (CREATE) has worked to elaborate and apply economic impact analysis to describe the expected losses from various hypothetical terrorist attacks. Our innovation has been to add a spatial dimension to operational inter-industry models.

This paper discusses links between policy settings, institutions and economic growth in OECD countries on the basis of cross-country time-series regressions. The econometric approach allows short-term adjustments and convergence speeds to vary across countries, imposing restrictions only on the long-run coefficients. In addition to the ‘primary’ influences of capital accumulation and skills embodied in the human capital, the results confirm the importance for growth of R&D activity, the macroeconomic environment, trade openness and well developed financial markets. They also confirm that many of the policy influences operate not only ‘directly’ on growth but also indirectlyviathe mobilisation of resources for fixed investment. The paper also reports some bivariate correlations between OECD indicators of product regulation and growth. They provide some supporting evidence that the negative impact of stringent regulations and administrative burden on the efficiency of product ...

This paper discusses growth performance in the OECD countries over the past two decades. Special attention is given to developments in labour productivity, allowing for human capital accumulation, and multifactor productivity (MFP), allowing for changes in the composition and quality of physical capital. The paper suggests wide (and growing) disparities in GDP per capita growth, while differences in labour productivity have remained broadly stable. These patterns are explained by different employment growth rates across countries. In the most recent years, a rise in MFP growth in ICT-related industries has boosted aggregate growth in some countries (e.g. the United States) ...

This paper provides an assessment of how households’ income has fared compared with GDP. While the prime focus is on incomes around the median, attention is paid also to the bottom of the income distribution. Thus, one contribution of the paper is to deliver a fresh assessment of the evolution of inequality and poverty across OECD countries over the last fifteen years. The analysis relies on a rich array of indicators, producing new evidence of the various patterns of differences in income distributions across countries and over time. For example, it assesses the extent to which stability in overall income inequality masks compensating changes between the lower and upper halves of the income distribution. Also, it explores whether contracting inequalities coexist with increasing poverty. The paper adds to previous studies by introducing, measuring and analysing income polarisation in a cross-country comparative perspective. Distinguishing polarisation from inequality and comparing their evolution over time provides new policy-relevant perspectives on the nature of the changing income distribution.

Economic growth is the basis of increased prosperity. This makes the attainment of growth a key objective for governments across the world. The rate of growth can be affected by policy choices through the effect that taxation has upon economic decisions and through productive public expenditures. This paper provides a self-contained introduction to the economic modelling of growth and reviews the theoretical evidence on the extent of the link between taxation and growth.

Economic growth is the basis of increased prosperity. This makes the attainment of growth a key objective for governments across the world. The rate of growth can be affected by policy choices through the effect that taxation has upon economic decisions and through productive public expenditures. This paper surveys the empirical analysis of disaggregate data on growth. The aim is to identify how economic policy can affect the choices that have been identified as influences upon the rate of growth.

Economic growth is the basis of increased prosperity. This makes the attainment of growth a key objective for governments across the world. The rate of growth can be affected by policy choices through the effect that taxation has upon economic decisions and through productive public expenditures. This paper surveys research that has undertaken empirical analysis of aggregate data. The focus of the survey is the identification of the factors that determine the rate of growth.

This paper provides a perspective from evolutionary economic theory on recent growth differences in the OECD area. The empirical analysis contained in the paper offers a number of findings. First, the United States seems to be diverging from the other OECD countries, while the latter are still, by and large, converging to the OECD average. Second, the estimated model of evolutionary growth suggests that convergence based on the assimilation of foreign technology is becoming a more active process. R&D now seems to be crucial for catching-up and is no longer an activity that is unequivocally associated with moving the world technological frontier. Third, differences between countries in terms of pure technological competencies, i.e. patenting, have become more important in explaining growth differentials. These trends suggest that the absorption of foreign technology requires more active efforts, and that technological differences between countries translate more easily ...

The aim of this Working Paper is to broaden the debate on “pro-poor growth”. An exclusive focus on the income dimension of poverty has neglected the non-income dimensions. After an examination of prominent views on the linkages between economic growth, inequality, and poverty reduction this paper discusses the proper definition and measurement of pro-poor growth. Bolivia serves as a case study to illustrate the usefulness of applying the analytical toolbox for pro-poor growth to non-income dimensions of poverty and offers some important new insights about differences in the evolution of both poverty dimensions. Growth in Bolivia has been more pro-poor in the non-income than in the income dimension. The analysis furthermore shows that extending use of the pro-poor growth toolbox to non-income dimensions of poverty greatly improves our understanding of the trends in non-income indicators. Such understanding is pivotal for a careful assessment of the linkages between income and nonincome poverty along the entire income distribution. It is equally important for poverty monitoring and for defining policy interventions. It also allows deeper analysis of the relative merits of economic growth, compared to direct intervention aimed at improving non-income dimensions of poverty.

This Working Paper presents a cross-Directorate Report on the economic, budgetary, regulatory and urbanpolicy implications of the earthquakes which struck the Marmara and Bolu areas of Turkey on 17 August and 12 November 1999. The earthquakes caused high casualties and significant material damage to property, with severe effects on economic activity. The Report traces the factors underlying Turkey’s vulnerability to earthquake damage, along a known active fault line, to deficiencies in risk identification procedures and risk-reduction methods, as well as to the absence of risk transfer and financing techniques. It suggests that these deficiencies may stem from the nature of recent Turkish economic development, which has been driven by the need to assimilate a mass migration from the countryside to the cities and has been associated with extremely high and variable inflation. Ensuring a more orderly future development requires both an overhaul of governance structures in ...

Substantial numbers of children in the advanced industrialized countries experience child abuse and neglect each year, resulting in considerable social, emotional, and economic costs to both the children themselves and to their societies as a whole. Yet, whereas scholars and policymakers have grown increasingly concerned with promoting child well-being, particularly among low income children, limited attention has been paid to child maltreatment. This paper reviews the existing research on the economic determinants and consequences of child abuse and neglect, drawing on theoretical and empirical studies from a wide range of disciplines. We first provide background information about child maltreatment in advanced industrialized countries. Next, we present current theory and empirical evidence regarding links between low income and child maltreatment. We then turn to the evidence on the long-term consequences of maltreatment. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of interventions to prevent abuse and neglect. We argue that results from a large number of studies clearly imply that economic resources play an important role in influencing risk for child abuse and (particularly) child neglect, although conclusive causal evidence has thus far been elusive. Furthermore, existing evidence that child abuse and neglect impose tremendous long-term costs both to victims and to society as a whole justifies heightened efforts to reduce child maltreatment. Finally, although a few proven programs exist, the evidence base with regard to effective policies and programs for preventing maltreatment is generally quite weak. Additional rigorous research across the advanced industrialized countries is necessary to promote a better understanding of the economic determinants and consequences of abuse and neglect, as well as the efficacy of policies and programs aimed at preventing child maltreatment and ameliorating its adverse effects.

This paper begins by motivating the need for including “wider economic effects” when conducting transport infrastructure appraisal, followed by a discussion of various techniques to do so. The major focus is on studies from the cost function perspective that incorporate spillover benefits from public infrastructure capital, with a presentation of applications on highways, airports, and ports infrastructure stocks. The substantial differences between approaches focusing on “narrow” and “wider” impacts is evaluated, along with discussion of how application of the tools of spatial econometrics has facilitated estimation of models that capture wider economic benefits.

The present report seeks to inform critical questions with regard to policy mixes of investments in adaptation and mitigation, and how they might vary over time. This is facilitated here by examining adaptation within global Integrated Assessment Modelling frameworks. None of the existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) captures adaptation satisfactorily. Many models do not specify the damages from climate change, and those that do mostly assume implicitly that adaptation is set at an “optimal” level that minimizes the sum total of the costs of adaptation and the residual climate damages that might occur. This report develops and applies a framework for the explicit incorporation of adaptation in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). It provides a consistent framework to investigate “optimal” balances between investments in mitigating climate change, investments in adapting to climate change and accepting (future) climate change damages. By including adaptation into IAMs these already powerful tools for policy analysis are further improved and the interactions between mitigation and adaptation can be analysed in more detail. To demonstrate the approach a framework for incorporating adaptation as a policy variable was developed for two IAMs– the global Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE) and its regional counterpart, the Regional Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (RICE). These modified models – AD-DICE and AD-RICE – are calibrated and then used in a number of policy simulations to examine the distribution of adaptation costs and the interactions between adaptation and mitigation. Using the limited information available in current models, and calibrating to a specific damage level, so-called adaptation cost curves are estimated for the world. Adaptation cost curves are also estimated for different regions, although given the limited information available to calibrate the regional curves these should be considered as rough approximations of the actual adaptation potential in the different regions. These adaptation cost curves reflect how different adaptation levels will provide a wedge between gross damages (i.e. damages that would occur in the absence of adaptation) and residual damages. The analysis presented suggests that a good adaptation policy matters especially when suboptimal mitigation policies are implemented. Similarly, a good mitigation strategy is more important when optimal adaptation levels are unattainable. The rationale for this result is that both policy control options can compensate to some extent for deviations from the efficient outcome caused by non-optimality of the other control option. It should be noted, however, that in many cases there are limits to adaptation with regard to the magnitude and rate of climate change. The higher the current value of damages, the more important mitigation is as a policy option in comparison to adaptation. The comparison between adaptation and mitigation therefore depends crucially on the assumptions in the model, and especially on the discount rate and the level of future damages. The policy simulations also suggest that to combat climate change in an efficient way, short term optimal policies would consist of a mixture of substantial investments in adaptation measures, coupled with investments in mitigation, even though the latter will only decrease damages in the longer term. The costs of inaction are high, and thus it is more important to start acting on mitigation and adaptation even when there is limited information on which to base the policies, than to ignore the problems climate change already poses. Ongoing increases in expected damages over time imply that adaptation is not an option that should be considered only for the coming decades, but it will be necessary to keep investing in adaptation options, as both the challenges and benefits of adaptation increase. The results of these policy simulations confirm the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the relationship between adaptation and mitigation as described in the Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report. The framework developed in this report opens the door for further simulations that examine adaptation cost issues within other, more complex IAMs. The model additions investigated in this report can also shed light on how the next generation of IAMs will look. These tools can also be further strengthened by the incorporation of more detailed regional knowledge on the impacts of climate change and of adaptation options.