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This paper uses information collected and provided by GlassAI to analyse the characteristics and activities of companies and universities in Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States that mention keywords related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) on their websites. The analysis finds that those companies tend to be young and small, mainly operate in the information and communication sector, have AI at the core of their business, and aim to provide customer solutions. It is noteworthy that the types of AI-related activities reported by them vary across sectors. Additionally, although universities are concentrated in and around large cities, this is not necessarily reflected in the intensity of AI-related activities. Taken together, this novel and timely evidence informs the debate on the most recent stages of digital transformation of the economy.

This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy.

Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey.
JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52

Several states in West Africa have experienced significant episodes of political violence since the early 2010s. These have included civil wars, religiously motivated terrorism, separatist insurgencies, military coups and communal strife, each of which have local, national and transnational dimensions. Intended to help guide responses to the region’s political challenges, the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC/OECD) created an interactive, spatial tool for policy makers in 2019, the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi). The SCDi monitors political violence at subnational scales. It combines different quantitative dimensions of conflict into a mappable tool that describes the circumstances in each location. The latest enhancement to the SCDi brings two new features to aid the identification of local conflict trends. First, the tool now identifies regions that are newly entering into or exiting from conflict. This allows a more detailed picture of how the geography of conflict is spreading or contracting within and across national borders. Second, the tool now characterises the current conditions in a location as either worsening or improving, based on past conditions at the same location. The SCDi is implemented in SWAC’s new Mapping Territorial Transformations in Africa (MAPTA) platform.

French

Since 2014 over 600 000 African migrants have arrived in Italy through the perilous Central Mediterranean route, and nearly 120 000 arrived in 2017. This paper is the first examination of migration motivations at the individual level using nationally representative surveys and focus group data collected in West Africa. Respondents in six West African countries cite economic factors as the reason for migrating and those who wish to stay claim family and love of country as the ties that bind. The study then specifically focuses on Nigeria, the country of origin for a quarter of all Africans traveling through the Central Mediterranean route. Half of the Nigerians were interested in leaving their country of origin if given the opportunity, well above the number in neighbouring countries. Evidence from the six-country survey suggests individuals are migrating for economic reasons but statistical analysis of the Nigeria data reveals a different set of push factors behind the desire to migrate. In fact, economic standing has a limited effect on Nigerians’ desire to leave their home. Instead, individual perceptions of the strength of Nigeria’s democracy are most strongly associated with Nigerians’ desire to migrate abroad, in addition to low levels of trust in local security institutions. Urban and more highly educated Nigerians, especially from Lagos, are also more likely to want to migrate abroad. These findings shed new light on domestic policy steps that could address the grievances and concerns of those who seek to migrate.

Oil trade activities constitute the most significant source of domestic resource mobilisation for oil producing developing countries. Yet, corruption and illicit financial flows (IFFs) also expose them to macro-critical risks of economic instability, exacerbating their often-high vulnerability to chronic poverty, fragility and episodic conflict. Although the numbers are rubbery, the domestic resources lost to oil producing developing countries on account of IFFs in oil trade activities are estimated to exceed the value of foreign direct investment (FDI) and official development assistance (ODA). There are also clear links between oil trade activities, IFFs and rapidly escalating debt distress involving private creditors, oftentimes-independent commodity traders. Given the nature of these risks and in the context of commitments to a net zero transition, the role and impact of ODA both in attenuating IFF risks and in facilitating an effective transition have never been greater.

Illicit financial flows (IFFs) generated by the artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector in West Africa have historically contributed to conflict and instability, although it would be a mistake to classify this issue as a criminal matter, given its links to formal and informal networks and local livelihoods. This study examines IFFs associated with the ASGM sector in Ghana and Liberia and reveals a complex web of informal and illicit activity associated with IFFs, with detrimental consequences for development. It focuses on gold because of its prominence in the West African Region and artisanal small-scale mining (ASM), rather than large-scale mining (LSM). Further, ASMG is largely informal and consequently more vulnerable to exploitation by criminal networks, and plays a prominent role as a local livelihood. This case study is relatively narrow in focus, providing insights into the nature and scope of ASGM activities and their resulting IFFs, and making several observations on those areas where action could be taken in an effort to reduce IFF risks. The study selected Ghana and Liberia as two countries where research could be conducted, and where gold is a major industry.

This paper explores the flow of illicit narcotics transiting West Africa. It is divided into four sections, providing an overview of the nature and scope of the illicit narcotic economy, the networks and actors involved and its development impacts, including its resulting illicit financial flows, the movement and impact of those financial flows, both to buy protection and to invest drug profits from West Africa, and finally, it provides concluding remarks that could inform future policy action. The paper is based on a review of the available secondary literature and interviews, and focuses on the cocaine trade due to the preponderance of available information and data compared to other types of drug trafficking. Comparisons or distinctions are also drawn between other illicit narcotics and emerging trends are highlighted where credible evidence is available.

Illicit trade in goods that displace normally legal goods is an extensive global problem, which carries considerable development risks and losses for developing countries. Focusing on pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals and consumer goods (which in itself consists of a broad range of goods), this case study reviews the example of Ghana to illustrate this problem, although it is a challenge afflicting all West African countries.

This paper highlights the magnitude and significance of the problem. It also reveals the actors involved, with a view to identify the drivers and interests behind the trade, and their developmental impacts. Although the case study focuses primarily on three kinds of goods in a single country, the analysis further aims to identify common causal factors that can be extrapolated across the counterfeit, pirated and substandard trade in the wider region with a view to inform the development of prospective policy recommendations.

Illicit financial flows (IFFs) in West Africa have long contributed to the region’s instability, partly due to their links to regional terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AQIM has directly and indirectly participated in and perpetuated illicit financial flows in the region not only through violent means but also through diverse links with the local economy and society. AQIM and its regional affiliates have a profound influence on the political economy of the Sahel and the Maghreb, as well as greater West Africa, and it is important to understand the role played by AQIM in IFFs and the means by which this drives regional instability. This case study examines the political-economic context and the nature and scope of the mechanisms through which AQIM (and its affiliates) operate, with particular emphasis given to their interaction with the local economy and any resulting IFFs.

The increased vulnerability of government finances in many countries underlines the importance of public risk management. We apply a specific risk management tool – stress testing – to public finances. After presenting a general framework for stress testing government finances, we illustrate its application for the case of the Netherlands. Our analysis indicates that high levels of contingent liabilities call for sufficient shock absorption capacity in public finances.

JEL classification: E62, H63
Keywords: Fiscal policy, public debt, stress test, risk management, budgetary sensitivity, implicit and explicit guarantees, Netherlands

This paper is intended to provoke debate, and stimulate further thinking and study, about humanitarian effectiveness, and what that will mean for donors and other stakeholders, in the run-up to the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016.

Today’s humanitarian system is made up of many different moving parts. These different parts are guided by different standards and learning initiatives, all aimed at promoting an effective humanitarian response. However, the system itself does not yet have a core set of shared values, and it is not clear whether the overall humanitarian endeavour is fit for purpose or optimally configured, given the challenges of a changing global context, and the increasing complexity of crises.

A common framework for humanitarian effectiveness, designed to promote collective responsibility and mutual accountability, would ensure that each actor would be held accountable for their contribution to the same characteristics of effectiveness – based on what they can control, what they can influence and where they advocate – no matter who was assessing them. No doubt, a shared understanding of humanitarian effectiveness will also stimulate change in the design, tools and approaches, and results measurement, within the humanitarian system.

While a number of single-country studies have been done to explore whether or not there is a “critical age” at which the arrival in a new country becomes a steep disadvantage to the immigrant student, this study aims to determine whether the steepness of the age-at-arrival/test score profile varies across origin or destination countries. As expected, the later the arrival, the greater the penalty. However results vary according to several factors, including language differences and whether the country of origin had higher or lower educational standards. Evidence shows the importance of helping young migrants with language difficulties, as well as with the subsequent adverse effects of these difficulties.
This working paper seeks to explore the reasons why educational attainment in the immigrant population varies between North America and Europe. Specifically, the examples of Canada and Switzerland are used as Canada has an immigrant population with a typically higher rate of post-secondary education than that of the domestic population, while in Switzerland the opposite is true. Analysis shows that while differences in immigration policy play a significant role, there are many other variables which affect educational attainment in immigrants, such as the education level of the parents, source region and home language.

This paper provides novel evidence on the regional impact of immigration on native employment in a cross-country framework based on rich European Labour Force Surveys and past censuses data for 2010-2019. The paper finds a modest average impact of the rise in the share of immigrants across European regions on the employment-to-population rate of natives, but highly uneven effects over time and across workers and regions. The short-run estimates show adverse employment effects in response to immigration that nevertheless disappear in the longer run. High-school or less educated native workers experience employment losses due to immigration, whereas higher educated workers are more likely to experience employment gains. Moreover, the presence of institutions providing strict employment protection and high coverage of collective wage agreements exert a protective effect on native employment. Finally, the paper finds that regions experiencing strong growth can absorb immigrant workers, resulting in little or no effect on the native workforce, including in the short-run.

Immigration has increased rapidly since the late 1990s, driven largely by strong economic growth and high standards of living. By mid-2023, foreign citizens made up around 18% of the population. This has brought important economic benefits to Iceland, including by boosting the working age population and helping the country to meet labour demands in fast-growing sectors. However, there are important challenges regarding the integration of immigrants and their children that need to be addressed through a comprehensive approach, helping to make the most of immigration. Successful labour market integration of immigrants requires more effective language training for adults and an improvement in skills recognition procedures. At the same time, immigrants need more opportunities to work in the public sector and the adult learning system should be adjusted to better encompass their training needs. Strengthening language skills is key to improving the weak educational outcomes of immigrant students. Enhancing teachers’ preparedness to accommodate students’ diverse educational needs is another pre-requisite. Strengthening integration further hinges upon meeting the housing needs of the immigrant population, including through an increase in the supply of social and affordable housing.

The OECD Competition Committee held a roundtable on Impact Evaluation of Merger Decisions in June 2011. This document includes: an executive summary and an aide memoire of that discussion; written submissions by Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union and BIAC; as well as additional contributions.

This OECD Guide sets out a framework of indicators to measure the impact of global events on local development. Global events (including culture, sports and business events) can have a significant impact on local development. Yet measuring this impact in a consistent, reliable, and comprehensive way can be challenging. This Guide presents a set of indicators which events hosts can incorporate into their evaluation strategy to assess the economic, social, and environmental impact of their event. It offers practical guidance and advice on how to implement this framework, alongside examples of indicator use. In doing so, the Guide supports the OECD Recommendation on Global Events and Local Development, which helps countries and future hosts bring greater local benefits and legacies from global events. This Guide can be read alongside "How to measure the impact of culture, sports and business events: A guide - Part I".

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious animal diseases. Because of the easy transfer between animals, FMD is of importance to the domestic market, but also to international agricultural trade. Infected countries are often confronted with rigorous measures implemented by their trading partners. The guidelines set out by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) define the waiting period after which a country that experienced an FMD epidemic can be declared as free of the disease for international trade purposes. In order to minimize the duration of this period, infected developed countries have often implemented mass slaughter strategies. The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of alternative control strategies on the domestic market of the infected country and on international markets. The paper provides a description of the different options for policy intervention in case of a FMD epidemic. It gives an overview of the history of FMD in OECD and selected non-OECD countries including the policy measures taken to fight the disease. A quantitative assement combining the Aglink-Cosimo and the GTAP model is presented.
French
This paper analyses the impact of changes in social institutions, i.e. in the informal and formal social security system, on income inequality in China. This study uses an inequality decomposition analysis approach comparing household survey data for 1988 with 1995. Since 1992 was a decisive year for accelerating to increase the role of market mechanism in China, comparing these two periods shows significant changes in social institutions and their impacts on income inequality. It provides meaningful implications for inequality issues in the present China. In a first step the paper looks at the impact of changes in the family based social security system on income inequality. Secondly, the paper investigates the contribution of current social security system reforms as a potential tool to cope with increasing inequality. Three main results emerge from the analysis: first, the family based social security is losing its importance mainly through the changes in employment pattern in a household. This change has a significant impact on income inequality. Second, this study shows that the introduction of new formal social security system helped to equalise the distribution of retired household members’ income in urban areas. Third, however, these changes have only benefited a restricted number of persons. Benefits for rural migrants are low and most of the rural population has still no access to the new system. Important steps forward will be to raise the fund-pooling level, and to include nonfarming workers into the new system.
This paper addresses tariff revenue concerns that some countries have been expressing in the context of the current multilateral trade negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. This paper: discusses methodological issues associated with estimating revenue impacts; provides impact estimates for a sample of developing countries; links the differences in impacts to cross-country differences in existing tariff regimes as well as properties of formulas for tariff cuts; and, discusses efficient tax replacement policies and past experiences. Additionally, the paper presents results of a simulation of the welfare effects of reducing tariffs and simultaneously replacing lost tariff revenues with revenues from consumption tax. It concludes with some policy implications.
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