Browse by: "PRE-2015"

This paper presents the specification of an investment-income model for 23 OECD countries and six non-OECD regions. The basic structure of the model -- an effective rate of return applied to the stock of foreign assets and liabilities -- is relatively simple and straightforward. A central distinction is made between dollar and non-dollar denominated foreign assets and liabilities and matrices giving estimates of the currency composition of these stocks are reported. Estimation and simulation results for the investment-income model are presented ...

This paper gives an overview of the determination of non-oil commodity prices in the Economics and Statistics Department's INTERLINK world model. The practical problems which have been encountered, in particular in the context of full simulations are discussed. Based on a number of statistical tests, a new specification of the commodity price block is proposed. Indices of nominal commodity prices measured in dollars are estimated as functions of OECD economic activity and inflation, U.S. interest rates and oil prices. Compared to the previous system, the new equations are better behaved in a number of respects ...

While the philosophy behind the supply block has not changed since its initial version, each of the block's behavioural equations as well as the parameters of the production functions have been substantially modified. These modifications have been motivated, in general, by a wish to improve the consistency of the block and to relax some of the constraints imposed. Consistency has been improved via a minor modification to the procedure for estimating the parameters of the production function, as well as from the inclusion of a measure of "normal" inventory growth in the demand term in the output equation. In the new version, the equilibrium stock/output ratio is no longer treated as a constant; tax considerations and domestic price effects are now included in the business energy price equations, and the dynamic adjustment of the factor demand equations has been made more general. Finally, some research on potential output, based on the revised production model, is reported ...

This paper discusses how monetary policy might assist macroeconomic performance in the second half of the 1980s in the G-10 countries, without compromising the medium-term objective of price stability. From this perspective, the recent stance of monetary policy is assessed, as well as its possible effects on output and inflation. The paper also examines the gains that might be expected from a short-run monetary stimulus, internationally coordinated, against the risks that might be implied for central bank credibility ...

This paper provides an analysis of the recent evolution of the U.S. current account external deficit in the context of the OECD Secretariat world model, INTERLINK. It seeks to assess to what extent developments in the U.S. current balance since 1980 might be viewed as being surprising, at least by the standards of the relationships embodied in the current U.S. trade block of that model ...

This paper analyses the effects of the internationalisation of financial markets on the conduct of macroeconomic policy and the allocation of capital. It first examines the increased integration between domestic and external (or "Euro") financial markets and the recent tendency towards convergence of real interest rates among financially open countries. After briefly touching on the macro policy consequences of financial internationalisation, the paper then deals with long-term implications for the international allocation of capital, with special emphasis on the existence of tax distortions. Using estimated tax wedges for business investment and the supply block of the INTERLINK system, it shows that, under integrated financial markets, the existing tax distortions could generate a large imbalance in the net external asset position which involves a significant welfare cost ...

The Government Household Transfer data base (GHT) consists of annual statistics on social security and welfare transfers to households from government, covering the period 1960-84. Social security benefits are classified by subfunction according to the Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG). This report describes the contents of GHT, the sources used and the problems encountered in setting up the data base. Tables are presented showing levels expressed in U.S. dollars per head of population, transfers as a percent of GDP, the distribution by subfunction and elasticities of transfers with respect to GDP. Growth rates are given for the periods 1960-73, 1973-79, 1979-84 and 1960-84. The annexes contain country tables showing the subfunctional breakdown of transfers in national currencies and a description of the items included and the sources used ...

This paper examines some alternative specifications of the aggregate consumption function for eight OECD countries. Wealth effects are potentially important as determinants of consumption and as a transmission channel from monetary influences to real variables. However, measurement difficulties prevent direct incorporation of wealth in empirical work on consumption in many countries. Here, wealth effects are incorporated implicitly into estimated functions in a way that differentiates between indexed and non-indexed assets. Results indicate that, while inflation appears to affect measured consumption ratios in all countries examined, an interaction between inflation and interest rates that would be implied by wealth effects is not always present. The implications of different consumption functions are tested within a macroeconomic model, the OECD INTERLINK system. The response of output and consumption to standard fiscal policy shocks generally becomes smaller when inflation ...

This paper examines the problems raised by the recent sharp increases in the ratio of public debt to GNP in most OECD Member countries. When interest rates exceed growth rates, this development appears as a symptom of instability in public finances. The paper also analyses the evolution of public debt within the wider framework of the government sector's net worth. One particular aspect of this approach -- the implicit pension liabilities of governments -- is seen to have a significant bearing on the debt outlook in several countries. Finally, the paper assesses the sensitivity of the public debt profile under alternative fiscal policy settings ...

This paper extends a previous study of profit trends to consider valuation ratios (Tobin's q) in nine countries. Tobin's q embodies market expectations and is an indicator of expected pure profit rates on the existing capital stock. Since 1982, equity markets have recovered substantially. By end-1985, values of Tobin's q were close to their 1974 levels and close to the symbolic figure of unity. The theoretical and conceptual relevance of q is considered, as well as data and measurement limitations. Real debt and equity costs of finance are considered in the light of buoyant stock markets. The implications of the strong recent recovery in q for investment are also noted ...

This paper reassesses, in the light of recent experience, the formulation of monetary policy in terms of targets for monetary aggregates in the major countries. A number of difficulties which have arisen are discussed: instability of the money-income relationship; constraints created by fiscal imbalances; exchange rate variability, as well as debt problems and threats to banks' solvency. The responses of monetary authorities to these difficulties are described and some possible options for the formulation of monetary policy in the future are considered (including nominal income and exchange rate targeting) ...

This paper considers the main transmission channels and macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in France over the last decade, as described by the structure and the simulation properties of contemporary econometric models. In particular the paper emphasizes: a) the larger role attributed by model-builders to interest rates as compared to financial quantity constraints; b) the inadequate consideration given to expectations in the modelling of the wage indexation process and international linkages (especially with respect to the EMS); and c) the significant impact of monetary policy on the real economy and the importance of the real output costs which result from disinflationary policy, at least in the short to medium run. Moreover, policy simulation with some models suggests that a sustained exogeneous rise in nominal interest rates under fixed exchange rates would have a stagflationary impact (lower output, higher prices) because of the assumption that firms, which are highly ...

The Compatible Trade and Production data base (COMTAP) consists of annual statistics on production, imports and exports of manufactured goods. The key feature of this data base is that both the production and trade statistics are classified according to the same nomenclature, namely, the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). The conversion of both trade and production statistics to the ISIC is approximate because there is usually no direct correspondence between the ISIC and the classification in which the trade and production data are reported to the OECD. This report describes the contents of COMTAP , some of the analytic uses to which it can be put, and the problems encountered in setting up the COMTAP data base. Finally, some examples are given of how the data base can be used to calculate "market penetration ratios" for 13 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 1983. The annexes present some of the COMTAP data in summary form ...

This paper describes the method of calculation of competitiveness indicators and effective exchange rates that are published half-yearly by the Secretariat in the Economic Outlook. This calculation is based on a double-weighting principle: the procedure calculates the relative importance of different countries on each market according to the relative importance of these markets for the country in question. The calculations include the impact of the domestic producer in each market, i.e. a particular country is considered as a competitor to other exporters to its own market. On the other hand, in calculating the importance of each competitor to a given country the share of the country in question is excluded in every market, i.e. a country cannot compete with itself. Weighting matrices have been constructed for each year, starting in 1970, and have been used to define and compute relative indices of costs, prices and exchange rates ...

The bivariate relationship between real exchange rates and the real long-term interest rate differential has been investigated in a number of recent studies. By exchange-rate-equation standards, this specification does a relatively good job of tracking the historical movements in the dollar-Deutschemark and the dollar-yen bilateral exchange rates, and the dollar effective exchange rate; but does a poor job for the dollar-sterling rate. This paper extends the analysis to 18 OECD countries, in bilateral as well as effective terms. Results from earlier studies are confirmed, but in general the estimation results are sufficiently mixed to suggest that the absence of any risk premia variables may be an important omission ...

This paper describes modifications to, and further developments of, the supply block in the Secretariat's INTERLINK world model as of the autumn of 1985. The objective of the work was to strengthen the role of supply side elements, in particular profitability, in the model. In the process, stockbuilding was endogenised, assigning to inventories an important buffer role between sales and output in the dynamic adjustment process. Price formation has been linked more coherently to the revised supply structure via a dual cost function, and labour supply has been endogenised.

The equations described in this paper have been incorporated in the latest version of INTERLINK, the simulation properties of which will be described in a separate forthcoming working paper, "The Structure and Simulation Properties of the OECD INTERLINK Model: An Overview" ...

This paper describes work on the determination of primary commodity prices in world spot markets and in trade. Reduced-form equations for four product group price indices are estimated as functions of OECD activity, world prices, interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, and other variables. The equations are tested for stability on their own and within the OECD INTERLINK system. The effect of exogenous shocks upon primary commodity prices is studied as well as the effect of commodity price changes upon OECD inflation and activity. The commodity price equations enter in the INTERLINK system through export unit value equations, the estimation of which is described in the paper ...

1. L'évolution récente et prévue du marché du travail se caractérise par une polarisation et un cloisonnement croissants entre les pays de l'OCDE et à l'intérieur des marchés du travail nationaux. On s'attend à ce qu'en Europe, le taux de chômage devienne plus élevé qu'en Amérique du Nord, étant donné qu'il continuera vraisemblablement de s'accroître dans les pays où il est déjà important et qu'il diminuera sans doute encore dans les pays où il est relativement faible. Par ailleurs, c'est en général dans les pays où le taux de chômage est élevé, que le chômage de longue durée et le chômage des jeunes par rapport au chômage total sont les plus importants.
2. On fait souvent valoir que les écarts de taux de chômage entre pays ou régions s'expliquent en partie par des degrés différents de "rigidité" ou, en termes positifs, de "flexibilité" du marché du travail. On estime que les chocs extérieurs sur les prix entraînent un chômage structurel plus élevé lorsque le marché du travail est ...

1. Le présent document examine le comportement probable des prix de l'énergie à moyen terme pour tenter de déterminer si ces prix resteront un facteur de désinflation comme en 1983 et en 1984, ou s'ils risquent d'augmenter plus vite que les autres prix, contribuant ainsi à relancer l'inflation. La première Section retrace l'évolution récente des prix de l'énergie, et notamment des prix des sources autres que le pétrole dans les périodes de hausse et de baisse du prix du pétrole. Dans la deuxième Section, on évalue les tendances probables de la production pétrolière des pays de l'OPEP et de la production résiduelle sur les marchés mondiaux de l'énergie, dans l'hypothèse d'une croissance économique à moyen terme modérée. Etant donné le rôle ma jeur que joue le prix du pétrole dans la détermination du prix des autres formes d'énergie, en particulier du gaz naturel, cette démarche devrait donner quelques indications sur les tendances probables des prix énergétiques et sur leurs relations ...