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Since the Finnish unemployment rate has rocketed to a very high level in the beginning of the 1990's, it is worth to study to what extent the unemployment rate prevailing today is due to cyclical or to structural reasons. In this paper we try to estimate two different indicators that represent the structural part of unemployment, the NAWRU and the NAIRU. The NAWRU (non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment) measures the structural unemployment simply by relating unemployment to wage inflation. The NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) in this paper is based on structural estimates of the price setting behaviour of firms and the wage setting behaviour of trade unions. The estimated NAWRU follows very closely the actual unemployment in Finland indicating that it is not the proper measure for the structural unemployment. The estimated NAIRU were at a low level up to the end of the eighties. Since then both the actual unemployment rate and the NAIRU have rocketed. In ...
The paper gives a broad discussion of structural unemployment seen from a Danish perspective. In the Danish Ministry of Finance the level of structural unemployment is estimated using two indicators - NAIRU and ITRU. The two indicators basically reflect variations in unemployment and inflation as measured by the GDP-deflator and are computed using historical simulations with the national macro-econometric model ADAM.
The uncertainty related to estimates of the level of structural unemployment calls for a great deal of caution when using such estimates in the framing of economic policy. Estimates of structural unemployment can nevertheless be useful when making forecasts of inflation and assessing the appropriate fiscal stance and - not least - when assessing the effectiveness of labour market policies and the possible need for changes. For the purpose of policy-making it is useful to make clear to what extent structural unemployment can be ascribed to “employability” problems of ...
International direct investment is increasingly recognised as an engine of economic growth and a powerful force for global integration. The OECD has long been active in analysing the implications of such forces and in influencing the design of appropriate policies for a global economy. This report summarises the findings of recent OECD work on the role of international investment in globalisation and economic development.
Foreign direct investment is defined as capital invested for the purpose of acquiring a lasting interest in an enterprise and of exerting a degree of influence on that enterprise’s operations. Direct investment differs from portfolio investment in that it involves control of the asset in question, while portfolio investors are passive investors, motivated only by the rate of return on the asset. While this distinction is useful for analytical purposes, OECD member countries are increasingly adopting a broader view of FDI which includes many investments otherwise ...
Large current account deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets in receipt of heavy private capital inflows. This paper reaches some major conclusions. First, the Lawson Doctrine — according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern — has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, it is possible to define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become “excessive”. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp drop in private savings are seen to coincide ...
- OECD countries as a whole have experienced modest annual output growth of some 2 1/2 per cent over the past four years. But unemployment remains unacceptably high -- having fallen only slightly from its peak of 38 million in 1993 to the current 35 million or 7 per cent of the workforce -- and wage and income disparities have widened in many countries, posing potential risks to social cohesion. These trends have prompted much debate on their causes, consequences and remedies.
- These are among the issues that the OECD has analyzed and discussed with Member countries since 1992 in the context of its Jobs Strategy work. OECD Ministers have endorsed the Jobs Strategy recommendations and called last May for greater reform efforts. More recently the meeting of OECD Labour Ministers last October emphasised the need for policies for low-paid and unskilled job seekers, enhancing the effectiveness of active labour market policies and lifelong learning to maintain employability, issues which were ...
The responses of countries to the OECD Caring World questionnaire, together with other available information, provides a good basis for summarising the main social policy trends with respect to the broad coverage of social protection arrangements, assistance for families, assistance for unemployed people of working age, retirement incomes, health care, long-term care and housing assistance.
In terms of the broad coverage of social security measures, the main developments have been some tightening of eligibility, particularly for new migrants, and increased importance of social assistance measures. Countries have responded to concerns about the incidence of social exclusion, often through comprehensive, integrated measures which include income support as well as measures to assist people back into mainstream activities of society.
With general family assistance measures, some countries have pursued greater means-testing of benefits, at the same time as some payments have been ...
We present estimates, at the State level, of Indian manufacturing Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Technical Efficiency (TE) from the estimation of production functions for 17 manufacturing industries from 1976 to 1992. Our analysis relates TFP and TE to the availability of infrastructure. We construct an aggregate infrastructure indicator from 12 indicators of core, social, and economic infrastructure. According to our findings, differences across States in manufacturing TFP and TE performance are accounted for, to a significant extent, by differences in infrastructure endowments. Our estimations make it possible, moreover, to measure the productive impact of the various types of infrastructure, as well as to identify the manufacturing industries where productivity gains are relatively more constrained by inadequate infrastructure. The findings could help in designing an effective policy of infrastructure investment, supporting both recent economic reforms towards industrial restructuring and efforts aiming to promote regional convergence in India ...
This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on major OECD economies, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical framework and available empirical evidence, consumption functions are estimated for the US including the influence of financial wealth. The resulting estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth are extrapolated to other G7 countries, allowing for differences in stock market capitalisation, and compared with ones obtained more directly from consumption functions that include stock market prices as an explanatory variable. Simulations are then carried out to assess the potential world impact of a major fall in stock market prices in the G7 countries using a version of the OECD INTERLINK model which embodies the latter equations. The overall effects are found to be significant, particularly when relevant international linkage mechanisms are taken into account ...
At a time of continuing financial crisis in Asia, the question of the appropriate policies for recovery and for future sustainable development is paramount. One area of particular importance is the treatment of foreign investors. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a leading role in many of the economies of the region, particularly in export sectors, and has been a vital source of foreign capital during the crisis. The four countries reviewed in this study — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand (referred to hereinafter as the ASEAN4) — have all to varying degrees welcomed inward investment for its contribution to exports. As a result, although only a small share of total investment or employment in each economy, FDI has been a key factor driving export-led growth in Southeast Asia. Foreign firms have by no means been the only actors, but they have played a leading role in those sectors with the fastest export growth such as electronics. Through such investment ...
This study presents the main developments in the manufacturing industry in Cameroon, based on firm-level data covering the 1980-95 period. The emphasis is on structural factors of competitiveness. A production function and an export function are estimated in order to study the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) and export performance. The results provide evidence indicating that openness to trade, development of skilled labour and adequate management of the real exchange rate are crucial factors for the enhancement of productivity and exports. Moreover, a mutually reinforcing relationship between productivity and export performance is demonstrated. The performance of the manufacturing sector in Cameroon has deteriorated considerably since the mid-1980s. This decline is to a degree explained by Dutch disease and inward-looking policies in the manufacturing sector, resulting in a highly overvalued real effective exchange rate (REER). Based on the estimated export and ...
This document examines Norwegian policy on managing natural and environmental resources. These issues, and more generally the challenges of sustainable development, are primary concerns of the authorities in Norway, a country richly endowed with natural resources. Substantial action has been taken, as can be seen in the development of an integrated institutional framework and in the major efforts undertaken to co-ordinate government policies in this area. The investment of a large share of the rent from oil and gas in foreign financial assets should help ensure the inter-generational balance. Norway’s leading role in fostering international co-operation on fisheries and environmental management — where problems often extend beyond national boundaries — also reflects an engagement mindful of the needs of present and future generations. Within the country, the government has succeeded in reducing the emissions of a large number of pollutants. But measures still need to become more ...