OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers
The OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) leads OECD research on the contribution of science, technology and industry to well-being and economic growth. STI Working Papers cover a broad range of topics including definition and measurement of science and technology indicators, global value chains, and research on policies to promote innovation. These technical or analytical working papers are prepared by staff or outside consultants to share early insights and elicit feedback.
- ISSN: 18151965 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151965
Identifying and inducing breakthrough inventions
An application related to climate change mitigation
Most of the projections of the cost of meeting climate change mitigation targets hinge crucially upon assumptions made about the cost and timing of the development of breakthrough technologies. However, very little is known about the conditions which are likely to give rise to breakthrough technologies. This paper seeks to uncover attributes of inventions – as reflected in patent data – which serve as “leading indicators” of subsequent technological and market development in climate change mitigation technologies. The role of industrial generality emerges as being robustly correlated with subsequent technological diffusion, whether measured as subsequent patent counts, commercial applicability, or attractiveness to risk finance. The indicator of closeness to science shows also a positive association with later technological diffusion. Originality and radicalness have more ambiguous results. This work can be seen as a foundation for the future development of a methodology providing guidance to policymakers in the choices made with respect to public support for different technological fields.
Keywords: green growth, climate change mitigation policy
JEL:
O31: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives;
Q55: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation;
Q54: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming;
O33: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights / Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
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