OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
Sélection d’études sur les questions relatives à l’alimentation, l’agriculture et les pêcheries préparées par la Direction des Échanges et de l’Agriculture.
- ISSN : 18156797 (en ligne)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18156797
Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade
Extreme weather events can disrupt agricultural markets, but agricultural trade can help address subsequent food security concerns. Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, this stochastic scenario analysis sheds light on the complex relationships between trade and food security in an environment where extreme weather events create uncertainty. The analysis suggests that trade integration makes countries less vulnerable to negative yield shocks by mitigating the risk of extreme food prices and by stabilising food availability. Although no model can capture the complex process and consequences of opening this sector to trade, it is clear that trade integration needs to be part of a wider coherent policy package to improve food security.
Mots-clés: Partial equilibrium modelling, Climate change, Food security, Trade integration, Resilience
JEL:
C54: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling / Quantitative Policy Modeling;
Q17: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture in International Trade;
Q54: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming;
Q18: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agricultural Policy; Food Policy;
Q56: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
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