Mark | Date Date | Title Title | |||
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No. 107 | 01 Jan 1992 |
A "Credit Crunch"?
This paper examines the recent slowdown in bank lending that has affected several large OECD countries. The analysis begins with a description of the importance of bank credit in the financial systems of the countries considered. The origins of the... |
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No. 746 | 28 Jan 2010 |
A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets
Housing markets have played a prominent role in macroeconomic developments over recent years. For a great part of the 2000s, buoyant housing markets have contributed to sustained economic activity in most OECD countries. But many markets overheated... |
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No. 243 | 11 May 2000 |
A Changing Financial Environment and the Implications for Monetary Policy
Monetary policy affects activity, and ultimately inflation, in a number of ways. The most important of these is generally considered to be through the effect of interest rates directly on the demand for goods by households and firms. However,... |
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No. 1186 | 11 Feb 2015 |
A Constant Market Share Analysis of Spanish Goods Exports
The constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Spain’s share of the global market for goods exports into competitiveness and structural effects (i.e. the impact of specialisation, either in product or geographical terms)... |
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No. 874 | 31 May 2011 |
A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth
This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of... |
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No. 774 | 07 Jun 2010 |
A Framework for Assessing Green Growth Policies
This paper proposes an analytical framework for assessing policies that will contribute to a better integration of environmental externalities in the pursuit of economic efficiency and growth objectives. The framework consists of two parts. The first... |
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No. 537 | 15 Jan 2007 |
A Golden Rule for Russia? How a Rule-Based Fiscal Policy Can Allow a Smooth Adjustment to the New Terms of Trade
The Russian economy continues to grow strongly, buoyed by rising terms of trade, which, in turn, are supporting a boom in domestic consumption. This paper addresses the challenge that the adjustment to sustained high oil prices poses for... |
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No. 93 | 01 Feb 1991 |
A Macroeconomic Model for Debt Analysis of the Latin America Region and Debt Accounting Models for the Highly Indebted Countries
During the 1980s, following the Mexican payments crisis of August 1982, a number of debt "plans" and "strategies" have been introduced, but overall progress in resolving the situation has been slow. This paper results from a project to investigate... |
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No. 270 | 25 Oct 2000 |
A Multi-Gas Assessment of the Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol covers emissions of a range of greenhouse gases. Yet, most attempts to quantify the economic impact of implementing the Protocol’s emission targets for the period 2008-12 have focused exclusively on CO2 emissions. This paper... |
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No. 748 | 01 Feb 2010 |
A Pause in the Growth of Inequality in China?
In recent years, policymaking in China has put increasing emphasis on stemming the growth in inequality, which had been fairly steep since the 1980s. Policy action has taken the form of regional development measures and of reforms of various aspects... |
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No. 65 | 01 Feb 1989 |
A Post Mortem on OECD Short-term Projections from 1982 to 1987
This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both... |
|||
No. 274 | 19 Dec 2000 |
A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections
This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “current year” and “year ahead” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections... |
|||
No. 1048 | 14 Jun 2013 |
A Projection Method for Public Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures
This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure, as well as the... |
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No. 1352 | 15 Dec 2016 |
A Re-assessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries
To what extent can public deficits increase without putting fiscal sustainability at risk, given the specific current macroeconomic situation of protracted low growth and low interest rates, combined with relatively high government debt levels? The... |
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No. 47 | 01 Jul 1987 |
A Review of the Simulation Properties of OECD's INTERLINK Model
This paper reviews the simulation properties of a recent version of the OECD Secretariat's international macroeconomic model, INTERLINK, a version which embodies much of the empirical work reported in recent Working Papers and summarised in a... |
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No. 41 | 01 Apr 1987 |
A Revised Supply Block for the Major Seven Countries in INTERLINK
While the philosophy behind the supply block has not changed since its initial version, each of the block's behavioural equations as well as the parameters of the production functions have been substantially modified. These modifications have been... |
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No. 1170 | 28 Oct 2014 |
A Revival of the Private Rental Sector of the Housing Market?
This Working Paper studies ways to stimulate the private rental sector (PRS) of the housing market – and compares experiences with policies and reforms in Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the Czech Republic. Although in many countries the PRS... |
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No. 1074 | 01 Jul 2013 |
A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model
This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future... |
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No. 816 | 23 Nov 2010 |
A Simple Model of the Relationship Between Productivity, Saving and the Current Account
This paper uses a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explore the qualitative impact of productivity shocks on current account positions via their impact on the saving behaviour of households. The analysis shows that the direction... |
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No. 800 | 26 Aug 2010 |
A Simulation Model of Federal, Provincial and Territorial Government Accounts for the Analysis of Fiscal-Consolidation Strategies in Canada
This paper presents a simulation model of the main budget aggregates of federal, provincial and territorial governments in Canada. The general approach is to use a cyclical indicator (output gap), estimate the sensitivity of government revenue and... |
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.
English, French
- ISSN: 18151973 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
1 - 20 of 1781 results
A "Credit Crunch"?
Paul Francis O'Brien and Frank Browne
01 Jan 1992
This paper examines the recent slowdown in bank lending that has affected several large OECD countries. The analysis begins with a description of the importance of bank credit in the financial systems of the countries considered. The origins of the...
A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets
Christophe André
28 Jan 2010
Housing markets have played a prominent role in macroeconomic developments over recent years. For a great part of the 2000s, buoyant housing markets have contributed to sustained economic activity in most OECD countries. But many markets overheated...
A Changing Financial Environment and the Implications for Monetary Policy
Paul Mylonas, Sebastian Schich and Gert Wehinger
11 May 2000
Monetary policy affects activity, and ultimately inflation, in a number of ways. The most important of these is generally considered to be through the effect of interest rates directly on the demand for goods by households and firms. However,...
A Constant Market Share Analysis of Spanish Goods Exports
Alberto González Pandiella
11 Feb 2015
The constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Spain’s share of the global market for goods exports into competitiveness and structural effects (i.e. the impact of specialisation, either in product or geographical terms)...
A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth
Stéphanie Guichard and Elena Rusticelli
31 May 2011
This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of...
A Framework for Assessing Green Growth Policies
Alain de Serres, Fabrice Murtin and Giuseppe Nicoletti
07 Jun 2010
This paper proposes an analytical framework for assessing policies that will contribute to a better integration of environmental externalities in the pursuit of economic efficiency and growth objectives. The framework consists of two parts. The first...
A Golden Rule for Russia? How a Rule-Based Fiscal Policy Can Allow a Smooth Adjustment to the New Terms of Trade
Christian Gianella
15 Jan 2007
The Russian economy continues to grow strongly, buoyed by rising terms of trade, which, in turn, are supporting a boom in domestic consumption. This paper addresses the challenge that the adjustment to sustained high oil prices poses for...
A Macroeconomic Model for Debt Analysis of the Latin America Region and Debt Accounting Models for the Highly Indebted Countries
Peter Dittus and Paul S. O'Brien
01 Feb 1991
During the 1980s, following the Mexican payments crisis of August 1982, a number of debt "plans" and "strategies" have been introduced, but overall progress in resolving the situation has been slow. This paper results from a project to investigate...
A Multi-Gas Assessment of the Kyoto Protocol
Jean-Marc Burniaux
25 Oct 2000
The Kyoto Protocol covers emissions of a range of greenhouse gases. Yet, most attempts to quantify the economic impact of implementing the Protocol’s emission targets for the period 2008-12 have focused exclusively on CO2 emissions. This paper...
A Pause in the Growth of Inequality in China?
Richard Herd
01 Feb 2010
In recent years, policymaking in China has put increasing emphasis on stemming the growth in inequality, which had been fairly steep since the 1980s. Policy action has taken the form of regional development measures and of reforms of various aspects...
A Post Mortem on OECD Short-term Projections from 1982 to 1987
B. Ballis
01 Feb 1989
This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both...
A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections
Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou
19 Dec 2000
This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “current year” and “year ahead” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections...
A Projection Method for Public Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures
Christine de la Maisonneuve and Joaquim Oliveira Martins
14 Jun 2013
This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure, as well as the...
A Re-assessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries
Jarmila Botev, Jean-Marc Fournier and Annabelle Mourougane
15 Dec 2016
To what extent can public deficits increase without putting fiscal sustainability at risk, given the specific current macroeconomic situation of protracted low growth and low interest rates, combined with relatively high government debt levels? The...
A Review of the Simulation Properties of OECD's INTERLINK Model
Pete Richardson
01 Jul 1987
This paper reviews the simulation properties of a recent version of the OECD Secretariat's international macroeconomic model, INTERLINK, a version which embodies much of the empirical work reported in recent Working Papers and summarised in a...
A Revised Supply Block for the Major Seven Countries in INTERLINK
Peter Jarrett and Raymond Torres
01 Apr 1987
While the philosophy behind the supply block has not changed since its initial version, each of the block's behavioural equations as well as the parameters of the production functions have been substantially modified. These modifications have been...
A Revival of the Private Rental Sector of the Housing Market?
Rik de Boer and Rosamaria Bitetti
28 Oct 2014
This Working Paper studies ways to stimulate the private rental sector (PRS) of the housing market – and compares experiences with policies and reforms in Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the Czech Republic. Although in many countries the PRS...
A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model
Ondra Kamenik, Zdenek Tuma, David Vavra and Zuzana Smidova
01 Jul 2013
This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future...
A Simple Model of the Relationship Between Productivity, Saving and the Current Account
Jean-Marc Fournier and Isabell Koske
23 Nov 2010
This paper uses a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explore the qualitative impact of productivity shocks on current account positions via their impact on the saving behaviour of households. The analysis shows that the direction...
A Simulation Model of Federal, Provincial and Territorial Government Accounts for the Analysis of Fiscal-Consolidation Strategies in Canada
Yvan Guillemette
26 Aug 2010
This paper presents a simulation model of the main budget aggregates of federal, provincial and territorial governments in Canada. The general approach is to use a cyclical indicator (output gap), estimate the sensitivity of government revenue and...