OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Recent surges in agricultural input prices experienced over the last two years have raised concerns about global food security. This year’s Outlook demonstrates that rising fertiliser costs can lead to higher food prices. A new feature of the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model allows the impact of changing costs of the main mineral fertilisers to be analysed separately from costs of other production inputs. Based on this new feature, a scenario analysis estimates that for each 1% increase in fertiliser prices, agricultural commodity prices would increase by 0.2%. Global food consumption – the main use of agricultural commodities – is projected to increase by 1.3% per year over the next decade, a slower pace than the previous decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. This year’s Outlook also provides improved estimates for food consumption by incorporating for the first time calculation methods to estimate food loss and waste.
This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends that drive the global agri-food sector, assuming there are no major changes to weather conditions or policies.
More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects
This chapter presents the trends and prospects of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 derived from the medium-term projections of the most globally produced, consumed and traded agricultural and fish commodities. Following a description of the macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections, it highlights the key findings for the consumption, production, trade, and prices of those commodities for the period 2023 to 2032. Agricultural demand is projected to grow more slowly over the coming decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. Production of agricultural commodities is also projected to grow at a slower pace. The reduced growth incentives are not only driven by a weakening global demand for agricultural products but by decelerating productivity growth resulting from increased input prices, notably fertilisers, and tightening of environmental regulations. The expected developments in global demand and supply will keep real agricultural prices on a slightly declining trend over the next decade. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries and for the livelihoods of workers along the food supply chains in food-exporting countries. There is a growing risk that weather variability, animal and plant diseases, changing input prices, macro-economic developments, and other policy uncertainties will lead to deviations in market outcomes from the current projections.