1887

OECD Productivity Working Papers

The OECD Productivity Papers are associated with the Global Forum on Productivity that provides a forum for mutual exchange of information and fosters international co-operation between public bodies with responsibility for promoting productivity-enhancing policies, including in undertaking joint policy analysis. It offers a platform for exchanging views, experiences and information, institutional and governance arrangements and government structures, with a view towards developing better policies. The Forum extends existing work in the OECD through a well-prioritised and coherent stream of analytical work serving the policy research needs of participants on the drivers of productivity growth.

Anglais

The career effects of labour market conditions at entry

This paper explores the effects of labour market conditions at graduation on an individual’s work-life over the following decade. Australians graduating into a state and year with a 5 percentage point higher youth unemployment rate can expect to earn roughly 8 per cent less in their first year of work and 3½ per cent less after five years, with the effect gradually fading to around zero ten years on. The magnitude of this effect varies according to the characteristics of the individual and the tertiary institution they attend. We then explore the mechanisms behind this scarring. Scarring partly reflects the subsequent evolution of the unemployment rate — the fact that unemployment shocks tend to persist — highlighting the potential for timely and effective macroeconomic stabilisation policies to ameliorate these scarring effects. More generally, job switching to more productive firms emerges as a key channel through which workers recover from adverse shocks that initially disrupt (worker-firm) match quality. We find some evidence that the speed of recovery has slowed since 2000, which is consistent with the decline in labour market dynamism observed in Australia over that period.

Anglais

Mots-clés: Wages, job search, job mobility
JEL: J62: Labor and Demographic Economics / Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers / Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; J64: Labor and Demographic Economics / Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers / Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search; E24: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
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