Browse by: "2020"

In light of population ageing, globalisation, automation, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand’s labour market is being significantly reshaped, and so are the skills required for higher employability. This paper analyses the capacity of Thailand’s education and training system to develop relevant skills from the pre-primary to higher education level, and explores the current state of skills imbalances in the country. It identifies accessibility of schooling, provision of relevant teacher training, and sustained competitiveness of higher education institutions as key areas for improvement. It also points to large skills shortages in the education, and health and social work sectors, and prevalent qualification and field-of-study mismatches. The findings highlight that a responsive education system, together with high-quality life-long learning opportunities that are accessible to all and aligned with skill needs, will be essential to equip Thai people with the right skills for navigating the rapidly changing world.

This Working Paper presents the perspective of Indonesia on the concept of total official support for sustainable development (TOSSD), the extent of TOSSD resources provided by Indonesia and the capacity of the government to report on these resources. Indonesia broadly supported TOSSD as a relevant measure for monitoring SDG implementation and proposed some adjustments to the TOSSD methodology.

Estimates for TOSSD provided by Indonesia in 2017 amount to USD 6 376 million, with USD 16 million for Pillar I (cross-border flows to other developing countries) and USD 6 360 million for Pillar II (contributions to international public goods). For Indonesia, activities recorded in TOSSD should not only be assessed in financial terms, but also in terms of their sustainable development impact. This pilot study attests to Indonesia’s strong capacity to report on TOSSD Pillar I, but finds that tracking could be improved for a wider range of resources. The country also has the capacity to report on Pillar II.

This paper provides decision-makers with a framework for prioritising different economic, social and environmental goals and analysing the options available to achieve them. To this end, it develops three stylised COVID-19 recovery pathways (“Rebound”, “Decoupling” and “Wider well-being”) that differ in the extent to which they encompass greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and the integration of mitigation and wider well-being outcomes or, broadly equivalently, SDGs. A number of real-world examples of COVID-19 recovery measures in the surface transport and residential sectors were identified, and the paper maps these measures onto these three stylised pathways. The paper finds a wide divergence in the environmental and social impacts of COVID-19 recovery measures developed to date, with several countries putting in place measures that correspond to all three pathways. The nature and pace of economic recovery in different countries and in aggregate will have important implications for existing, updated and new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, and the paper also highlights the possible impact of the COVID-19 recovery measures being put in place on NDCs– including on the ambition of both current and future NDCs. The paper concludes that it will be important for governments to improve their understanding of the impact of their recovery measures across multiple policy dimensions (economic, social, environmental) as well as across different time periods (short and long-term) and spatial scales.

En réponse à la crise COVID-19, un certain nombre d’administrations fiscales ont déjà publié des directives nationales adressant certaines des conséquences de COVID-19 sur les prix de transfert. Bien qu’il s’agit d’une première étape importante de fournir des instructions pratiques aux attentes des contribuables, de faciliter la coopération en matière de respect des obligations fiscales et d’améliorer la sécurité juridique en matière fiscale, la nature double des prix de transfert signifie que ce n’est qu’en acceptant une approche commune que les administrations fiscales peuvent accroître la sécurité juridique en matière fiscale. Ce guide clarifie et illustre l’application pratique du principe de pleine concurrence tel qu’il est énoncé dans les Principes de l’OCDE applicables en matière de prix de transfert aux défis uniques et spécifiques de la pandémie de COVID-19. Ce guide se concentre sur quatre questions prioritaires : (i) l’analyse de la comparabilité; (ii) les pertes et la répartition des coûts spécifiques à la crise du COVID-19; iii) les programmes d’aide publique; et iv) les accords préalables en matière de prix de transfert (APP). Ce guide a été élaborées et approuvées par les 137 membres du Cadre inclusif sur le BEPS de l’OCDE et du G20 (Cadre inclusif). S’il est reconnu que certains pays en développement membres du Cadre inclusif peuvent également suivre le Manuel pratique des Nations Unies sur les prix de transfert pour les pays en développement (2017), ce guide sera utile dans les circonstances où le Manuel des Nations Unies suit un cadre analytique similaire et arrive à des conclusions similaires à celles des Principes de l’OCDE applicables en matière de prix de transfert.

Als Antwort auf die COVID-19-Krise haben einige Steuerverwaltungen bereits innerstaatliche Leitlinien zu bestimmten Verrechnungspreisfolgen von COVID-19 veröffentlicht. Dies ist zwar ein wichtiger erster Schritt, um Erwartungen zu formulieren, Zusammenarbeit zu ermöglichen und für mehr Steuersicherheit zu sorgen; aufgrund der zweiseitigen Natur der Verrechnungspreise kann die Steuersicherheit in diesem Bereich jedoch nur mit einem gemeinsamen Ansatz erhöht werden. Dieses Dokument soll nun erläutern, wie der in den OECD-Verrechnungspreisleitlinien verankerte Fremdvergleichsgrundsatz auf die besonderen Sachverhalte und Herausforderungen anzuwenden ist, die sich aus der COVID-19-Pandemie ergeben. Dabei stehen vier Themen im Vordergrund: i) Vergleichbarkeitsanalyse, ii) Verluste und Aufteilung der COVID-19-spezifischen Kosten, iii) staatliche Hilfsprogramme und iv) Vorabverständigungen über die Verrechnungspreise (APA). Diese Leitlinien wurden von den 137 Mitgliedern des Inclusive Framework on BEPS von OECD und G20 erarbeitet und gebilligt. Einige Mitglieder des Inclusive Framework orientieren sich zwar am United Nations Practical Manual on Transfer Pricing for Developing Countries (2017), in Fällen, in denen das VN-Handbuch ähnliche Analyse- und Lösungsansätze vorsieht wie die OECD-Verrechnungspreisleitlinien, dürften sie jedoch auch für sie hilfreich sein.

Using data from the 2018 OECD Indicators on the Governance of Sector Regulators, this paper analyses the governance of economic regulators in seven Latin American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru) and across five critical network sectors (energy, e-communications, rail transport, air transport and water). The indicators allow for direct comparison of thirty economic regulators and provide a snapshot of the governance arrangements designed to preserve independence, practices to promote accountability, and the functions of the regulators. After describing key institutional characteristics of the regulators in the sample, the paper uses the indicators to identify patterns in governance. Evidence from in-depth performance reviews of regulators complements the indicators, shedding light on cost recovery fees, budgetary processes, and the use of advisory bodies in Latin American regulators.

The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise’ GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness.

Information on the structural characteristics of steel firms over time provides important insights into the dynamics of the steel industry and how this industry has been restructuring and adapting in a rapidly changing environment. This paper builds on data from the new and unique OECD Steel database to shed light on the micro determinants of changes in the steel sector. The OECD Steel database provides invaluable insights into the characteristics of steel plants and steel firms, and how they have evolved in the last 20 years. Results from the analyses in this paper suggest that the steel sector could benefit from increased business dynamism, while data show that economies of scale and technology are important factors influencing adjustment in the sector. The paper concludes by offering several different avenues for future research that could build upon the OECD Steel database.

With a newly constructed firm-level dataset combining various survey- and registry data from Statistics Estonia, this paper sheds new light on the labour productivity premium from adopting digital technologies and boosting digital skill use. The productivity premium is decomposed into a direct effect benefitting the firms actually increasing their digital intensity, and an indirect effect of belonging to a sector with high digital intensity. The firm-level productivity premium of being an adopting firm is consistently positive and sizeable across different digital technologies and measures of skill intensity. The evidence also suggests positive spill-over effects in manufacturing sectors and sectors with a high routine task content and thus a high automation potential.

Technologies such as cloud computing, software to automate supplier- and customer relations, online platforms and artificial intelligence seem to offer a vast potential to boost productivity and living standards. However, aggregate productivity growth has declined sharply across the OECD over the past decades. Estonia is no exception, though it is well placed to gain from digital technology diffusion, with strong digital foundations, including advanced and secure physical and digital infrastructure and world-leading e-government services. Turning this potential into a productivity boost necessitates speeding up digital take-up also outside of the ICT sector and fostering the complementarities between digital technologies, skills and policies. Skills are high in general, and the supply of ICT specialists is picking up. There is still potential to improve digital user skills, and notably to put skills to better use by improving management skills and practices. Business-friendly regulations in general and pioneering attempts in some areas will likely spur the adoption of digital technologies. However, insolvencies are too slow and costly, command-and-control regulations relatively frequent and public ownership in network industries is high. Strengthening collaboration between industry associations, labour unions and industry clusters within technology investments, internationalisation, skill supply and management practices could help the country better realise complementarities between technologies, skills and policies, and thereby tap deeper into the productivity potential offered by digital technologies.

Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies – with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes – offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs.

The focus of this working paper is on how secondary schools can optimise young people’s preparation for adult employment at a time of extreme labour market turbulence. By reviewing academic analysis of national longitudinal datasets, it is possible to identify indicators of comparative adult success. How teenagers (i) think about their futures in work and what they do to (ii) explore and (iii) experience workplaces within and outside of schools is consistently associated with better than expected employment outcomes in adulthood. Data-driven career guidance will take such indicators into account within delivery. Analysis of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 illustrates substantial variation in the extent of such career readiness between and within countries. Variation in career readiness is particularly associated with disadvantage. More effective education systems will ensure schools systematically address inequalities in teenage access to information and support in preparing for working life.

Tourism continues to be one of the sectors hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic and, at the time of publishing this report, the outlook remains highly uncertain. OECD expects international tourism to fall by around 80% in 2020. Domestic tourism is helping to soften the blow, and governments have taken impressive immediate action to restore and re-activate the sector, while protecting jobs and businesses. Many countries are also now developing measures to build a more resilient tourism economy post COVID-19. These include preparing plans to support the sustainable recovery of tourism, promoting the digital transition and move to a greener tourism system, and rethinking tourism for the future. This report presents policy measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on tourism and support the recovery, and draws initial lessons from the crisis to build a more sustainable and resilient tourism economy for the future.

This paper examines whether the results of cost-benefit analyses (CBA) for road and rail projects can be compared with each other. Road and rail projects address different transport needs and aim to solve different problems. This does not make comparisons between CBAs for each mode impossible, but requires a nuanced approach.

This report looks at the transport challenges for remote areas in Scotland. It does so by examining innovative policies the government has developed to ensure communities on both the margins of the country and the economy are connected to the rest of the country. It takes a broad view of connectivity, examining the crucial role transport plays in the provision health and education services.

Même avec les récentes nouvelles prometteuses sur le développement de vaccins, une stratégie de dépistage, suivi, traçage et isolement (PSTI) rapide et à grande échelle continue d'être essentielle dans la réponse des politiques de santé publique à la pandémie de COVID‑19. Cette note met à jour une note antérieure de l'OCDE sur ces stratégies, à la lumière des développements récents des technologies de dépistage. Les tests moléculaires, et en particulier par RT-PCR, demeurent la référence pour identifier les infections car ils sont très fiables. Mais les contraintes de capacité et le coût relativement élevé de la RT-PCR limitent son utilisation à grande échelle. Les tests antigéniques rapides, plus récents, offrent l'avantage de produire des résultats beaucoup plus rapidement. Ils sont également moins chers, plus simples à utiliser et peuvent être réalisés au point d’accès, permettant ainsi leur utilisation à très grande échelle. Cependant, ils sont moins fiables que les tests moléculaires. Pour atteindre leurs objectifs, les stratégies de dépistage peuvent combiner différentes technologies et les utiliser de manière complémentaire, en tenant compte de leurs atouts et limites respectives.

Private debt owed to banks and other financial institutions has been at unprecedented high levels. This paper studies the role of these high levels of debt for workers, based on an assembled micro-dataset that harmonises household surveys from 29 OECD countries. High debt is found to be associated with two bad outcomes for workers: weaker wage growth and an increased risk that they encounter a sharp fall in their wages. People who tend to be particularly affected are the low-skilled, individuals with unstable employment paths and financially vulnerable households. Strong bank supervision and macroprudential measures that aim to avoid credit overexpansion are two policies that can improve the links of private debt with labour income growth and risk. Overall, the evidence in this paper points to finance as one factor behind wage stagnation and the social divisions in today’s labour markets.