OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, incorporating expertise from collaborating member countries and international commodity organisations. It provides market projections for national, regional and global supply and demand of major agricultural commodities, biofuel and fish.
During the preparation of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029, the exact effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural markets were still largely unknown and they were therefore not incorporated in the baseline projections. Nevertheless, the Outlook aims to outline the channels of transmission of COVID-19 impacts on the various food and agriculture sectors.
Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Overview
This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national agricultural markets. The projections cover consumption, production, trade, and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2020 to 2029. The weakening of demand growth is expected to persist over the coming decade. Population will be the main driver of consumption growth for most commodities, even though the rate of population growth is projected to decline. Per capita consumption of many commodities is expected to be flat at the global level. The slower demand growth for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in crop and livestock production, which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries, and for rural livelihoods in food-exporting countries. World agricultural markets face a range of new uncertainties that add to the traditionally high risks agriculture faces. The most significant source of uncertainties relates to the COVID-19 pandemic that has impacts on consumption, production, prices and trade. Other uncertainties relate to changes in consumers preferences, plant and animal diseases, and the heightened uncertainty with respect to future trading agreements between several important players on world agricultural markets.
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