The COVID-19 pandemic is placing unprecedented pressure on global agricultural and food supply chains. As a result, we have witnessed bottlenecks in input industries, agriculture production, food processing, transport and logistics, as well as huge shifts in demand for food and food services. Moreover, countries are implementing measures to address widespread health risks, leading to a dramatic economic contraction that is affecting farmers, workers, and consumers around the world. The challenge for governments is to create a balanced package of policies that address immediate needs and create conditions for the sector to “build back better”. Policy makers faced with the uncertainties generated by this unexpected crisis need access to information and analysis to inform their decisions.

The Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 is a collaborative effort of the OECD and FAO, prepared with input from the experts of their member governwwments and from specialist commodity organisations. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural and fish commodity markets at national, regional and global levels. The baseline projections highlight fundamental economic and social trends driving the global food sector.

This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national agricultural markets. The projections cover consumption, production, trade, and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2020 to 2029. The weakening of demand growth is expected to persist over the coming decade. Population will be the main driver of consumption growth for most commodities, even though the rate of population growth is projected to decline. Per capita consumption of many commodities is expected to be flat at the global level. The slower demand growth for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in crop and livestock production, which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries, and for rural livelihoods in food-exporting countries. World agricultural markets face a range of new uncertainties that add to the traditionally high risks agriculture faces. The most significant source of uncertainties relates to the COVID-19 pandemic that has impacts on consumption, production, prices and trade. Other uncertainties relate to changes in consumers preferences, plant and animal diseases, and the heightened uncertainty with respect to future trading agreements between several important players on world agricultural markets.

This chapter describes key trends and emerging issues facing the agricultural sector in the six FAO regions, i.e. Asia and Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Near East and North Africa, Europe and Central Asia, North America, and Latin America and the Caribbean. For each region, it provides background on key regional characteristics (e.g. population, per capita income, agro-ecological conditions and natural resources endowment) and highlights medium-terms projections for production, consumption, and trade for the period 2020-29.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world cereal markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for maize, rice, wheat and other coarse grains are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world cereal markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world oilseed markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for soybean, other oilseeds, protein meal, and vegetable oil are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world oilseed markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world sugar markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for sugar beet, sugar cane, sugar, molasses, and high-fructose corn syrup are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world sugar markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world meat markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for beef and veal, pigmeat, poultry, and sheepmeat are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world meat markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world dairy markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for milk, fresh dairy products, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder and whole milk powder are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world dairy markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world fish markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for fish from catch and aquaculture are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world fish markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world biofuel markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for ethanol and biodiesel are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world biofuel markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the medium-term projections for world cotton markets for the period 2020-29. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for cotton are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties affecting world cotton markets during the coming ten years.

This chapter provides a market overview and a description of the current market situation for roots and tubers (i.e. cassava, potato, yams, sweet potato, taro), pulses (i.e. field peas, broad beans, chickpeas, lentils), and banana and major tropical fruits (i.e. mango, mangosteen and guava, pineapple, avocado, and papaya) markets. It then highlights the medium term (2020-29) projections for production, consumption and trade for these products and describes the main drivers of these projections.

This section provides information on how the projections in the Agricultural Outlook are generated. First, a general description of the agricultural baseline projections and the Outlook report is given. Second, the compilation of a consistent set of the assumptions on macroeconomic projections is discussed in more detail. Section 3 provides reference to the underlying Aglink-Cosimo model, while the last section explains how a partial stochastic analysis is performed with the Aglink-Cosimo model.