The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 is a collaborative effort by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Serving as a reference for forward-looking policy planning, the Outlook draws upon the expertise of both organisations, incorporating inputs from collaborating member countries and commodity organisations. It provides a comprehensive assessment of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the next ten years. The Outlook uses the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to ensure consistency and global equilibrium across all markets. Detailed methodology and model documentation are available online at www.agri-outlook.org.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 provides a comprehensive analysis of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels. The Outlook has been produced jointly by the OECD and FAO for 20 years, in collaboration with their Members and international commodity organisations. It serves as a structured reference for policy planning, especially in the context of the recent global COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions and the increasing impact of climate change. This 20th joint Agricultural Outlook reflects on the evolution of global agriculture over the past two decades and provides projections through to 2033.

This chapter presents the key findings for the consumption, production, trade, and prices of major agricultural and fish commodities covered in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for the period 2024 to 2033. It summarises a plausible baseline scenario of the next ten years, based on assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, productivity trends, weather conditions, consumer preferences, and agriculture and trade policy settings. Global agricultural demand is projected to grow more slowly over the coming decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. This 20th joint edition features a review the evolution of agricultural markets over the last twenty years, highlighting the increasing importance of emerging economies. While the influence of The People’s Republic of China in global food and agricultural consumption is projected to diminish over the next decade, India and Southeast Asia are expected to gain significance. Agriculture’s global greenhouse gas emissions intensity is projected to decline, as the projected production growth will be based on productivity improvements rather than cultivated land and livestock herd expansions. However, direct emissions are still projected to rise. The chapter also presents a scenario focussing on the impact of food loss and waste reduction on GHG emissions, food security and nutrition.The Outlook emphasises the continued importance of well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets for global food security and rural livelihoods. The expected developments in global demand and supply are projected to keep real international reference prices on a slightly declining trend over the next ten years, yet potential deviations from the underlying environmental, social, geopolitical and economic assumptions would alter the baseline projections.

This chapter describes key trends and emerging issues facing the agricultural sector in the six FAO regions: Asia Pacific (which is split into Developed and East Asia and South and Southeast Asia); Sub-Saharan Africa; Near East and North Africa; Europe and Central Asia; North America; and Latin America and the Caribbean. It highlights the regional aspects of production, consumption, and trade projections for the period 2024-33 and provides background information on key regional issues that relate to the projections.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world cereal markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for wheat, rice, maize and other coarse grains. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world cereal markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world oilseed markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for soybean, other oilseeds, protein meal, and vegetable oil. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world oilseed markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world sugar markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for sugar beet, sugarcane, sugar, molasses, and high-fructose corn syrup. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world sugar markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world meat markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for beef and veal, pig meat, poultry, and sheep meat. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world meat markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world dairy markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for milk, fresh dairy products, butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world dairy markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes recent market developments and highlights the medium-term projections for world fish markets for the period 2024-33. Price, production, consumption and trade developments for fish from capture fisheries and aquaculture are discussed. The chapter concludes with a discussion of important risks and uncertainties that might affect world fish markets over the next ten years.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world biofuel markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices for ethanol and biodiesel. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world biofuel markets over the next decade.

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world cotton markets for the period 2024-33. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices developments for cotton. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world cotton markets over the next decade

This chapter provides a market overview and description of the current market situation for roots and tubers (i.e. cassava, potato, yams, sweet potato, taro), pulses (field peas, broad beans, chickpeas, lentils), and banana and major tropical fruits (mango, mangosteen and guava, pineapple, avocado, and papaya) markets. It also provides the medium term (2024-33) projections for production, consumption and trade for these products and describes the main drivers shaping these projections.