1887

Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

image of Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

Conflicts in North and West Africa have become more violent and widespread than in the past. They have also become more difficult to resolve due to the complex relationships between a growing number of belligerents with diverging agendas. Building on a dataset of more than 36 000 violent events over a 23‑year period and three case studies (Lake Chad, Central Sahel and Libya), this report maps conflict networks and the evolution of rivalries and alliances in 21 North and West African countries. It applies an innovative approach, Dynamic Social Network Analysis, to explain the types and evolution of relationships across actors in conflict. Finally, the report analyses the impact of military interventions on the re‑composition of violent groups and the shifting nature of insecurity. This new analysis, based on temporal and spatial approaches contributes to the creation of strategies that will ensure long‑term political stability and serves as a reminder that there is a need for co‑ordinated regional approaches and place‑based policies.

English Also available in: French

A dynamic analysis of conflict networks in North and West Africa

Conflicts in North and West Africa are characterised by a high degree of complexity in which hundreds of rebel groups and violent extremist organisations are involved in a shifting series of alliances and rivalries with government forces and with each other. In order to map this complex conflict environment, this chapter develops a novel approach, known as dynamic social network analysis (DSNA) capable of modelling the creation and dissolution of ties, either positive or negative, among a violent group of actors over time. The DSNA approach relies on several metrics that show how co-operative and opposition networks evolve, change and adapt to foreign military interventions. The analysis of the evolution of conflict networks is conducted at the regional level (North and West Africa) and through three case studies (Mali and Central Sahel, Lake Chad, Libya). It leverages political event data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) that has catalogued violent extremist incidents in Africa since 1997.

English Also available in: French

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error