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Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

image of Conflict Networks in North and West Africa

Conflicts in North and West Africa have become more violent and widespread than in the past. They have also become more difficult to resolve due to the complex relationships between a growing number of belligerents with diverging agendas. Building on a dataset of more than 36 000 violent events over a 23‑year period and three case studies (Lake Chad, Central Sahel and Libya), this report maps conflict networks and the evolution of rivalries and alliances in 21 North and West African countries. It applies an innovative approach, Dynamic Social Network Analysis, to explain the types and evolution of relationships across actors in conflict. Finally, the report analyses the impact of military interventions on the re‑composition of violent groups and the shifting nature of insecurity. This new analysis, based on temporal and spatial approaches contributes to the creation of strategies that will ensure long‑term political stability and serves as a reminder that there is a need for co‑ordinated regional approaches and place‑based policies.

English Also available in: French

Networks of violence in North and West Africa

This chapter examines how rivalries and alliances affect the long-term evolution of violence in North and West Africa. Building on a dataset of 36 760 violent events, the chapter maps how state and non-state actors are embedded in ever-changing opposition and co-operation networks (relations) from 1997 to 2020. The chapter shows thatthe number of belligerents has increased dramatically since 1997. Organisations in conflict form a loose network dominated by jihadist organisations in Mali, the Central Sahel and Lake Chad region and by government forces in Libya. This network is becoming increasingly dense and more centralised over time, a worrying trend that suggests that violence is more persistent than ever. The chapter also shows that alliances remain fragile and circumstantial, particularly among rebels and jihadist groups, whose political loyalties remain ambivalent. The decentralised structure of the co‑operation network is strikingly similar to the opposition network, suggesting that organisations are frequently shifting allegiances. Co‑operation has exhibited a slight upward trend since the mid-2010s, fuelled by regional military alliances in Mali and the Lake Chad region, and the consolidation of authority in Libya.

English Also available in: French

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