OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 2
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on the implications for public policy of the decoupling of wages from productivity and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
The Statistical Annex is available on-line only at https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_outlook-v22018-2-en
Russia
Growth is projected to remain robust, as private consumption will benefit from rising wages, household credit and employment, the latter following a bold pension reform. Large infrastructure projects will boost both public and private investment. The VAT increase in early 2019 will dent growth temporarily as disposable incomes fall. Export growth will decline as foreign demand weakens, while imports will rebound in 2020. A weaker rouble and the VAT increase will raise inflation temporarily above the 4% target. Unemployment will increase as employment demand will only partly match higher labour supply following the rise of the retirement age.
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