The global outlook is fragile, with increasing signs that the cyclical downturn is becoming entrenched. GDP growth remains weak, with a slowdown in almost all economies this year, and global trade is stagnating. A continued deepening of trade policy tensions since May is taking an increasing toll on confidence and investment, further raising policy uncertainty. Supportive labour market conditions continue to hold up household incomes and consumer spending, at least in the near term, although survey measures point to weakness ahead. Moves towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance in many economies are keeping asset prices high, though the benefits for real activity appear to be less powerful than in the past. In many countries fiscal easing remains limited, with scope to take further advantage of low interest rates to support growth. Overall, given the balance of these forces acting, global GDP growth is projected to remain at around 3% in 2020 and 2021, after having declined to 2.9% this year, the weakest pace since the financial crisis (Table 1.1). Inflation is expected to remain mild. Global trade growth is projected to pick up only slowly given continued trade tensions, with trade intensity over 2019‑21 remaining low. These developments raise concerns that growth expectations continue to decline in the absence of policy action. The induced reallocation of activities across countries and adjustment to supply chains that results from persisting trade tensions is both a drag on demand and a source of weaker medium-term growth by reducing productivity and incentives to invest.