OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 2
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a series of focus notes on selected macroeconomic and structural issues, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
China
Economic growth is projected to decline to 5.5% in 2021 as the economy continues to rebalance and trade tensions remain high. In 2019, frontloading of exports has helped to support activity, but increased tariffs will constrain growth going forward. Imports will slow further as demand for imported inputs eases, resulting in an increase in the current account surplus. Overall investment growth is no longer slowing thanks to government infrastructure projects and still robust real estate investment, although manufacturing investment growth is weak. Private consumption will grow steadily on the back of relatively strong disposable income gains. Inflation is easing, notwithstanding soaring prices of some consumption goods.
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