When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Argentina, the economy was already in recession and uncertainty was high, in particular regarding the restructuring of the high public debt. While the timely containment measures mitigated the spread of the virus, they reduced production capacity and domestic demand. With the gradual lifting of the lockdown, domestic demand will recover, but remain subdued due to higher unemployment and lower household incomes. A significant rebound of investment will depend on a successful restructuring of public debt. GDP is projected to fall by around 10% in 2020 in the event of a second virus outbreak and another dip in economic activity later in the year (the double-hit scenario). If this does not occur, a faster recovery is possible, with GDP declining by around 8¼ per cent in 2020.