Economic activity collapsed in the second quarter of 2020, as lockdown measures to fight the pandemic required many businesses to suspend activities and consumers to stay home. However, confinement has been less strict than elsewhere thanks to the relatively mild virus outbreak. Massive macroeconomic policy support, including a temporary wage subsidy, is limiting the economic shock. Most economic restrictions are planned to be unwound by July. However, should widespread contagion resume, with a return of lockdowns, confidence would suffer and cash‑flow would be strained. In that double‑hit scenario, GDP could fall by 6.3% in 2020. Even in the absence of a second outbreak, GDP could fall by 5% in 2020.