The economy is projected to contract by 14.4% in 2020 in a scenario with a second virus outbreak later in the year, and by 11.1% in a scenario assuming that the pandemic subsides by the summer. The subsequent recovery in 2021 will be slower in the former case, at 5%, compared to the rebound of 7.5% in the single-hit scenario, given more persistent effects on labour markets and the financial situation of firms and households. In both scenarios, the fall in domestic demand, due to job destruction and the shutdown of activity, is the key driver of the contraction. The drop in external demand, especially in tourism services, will also weigh very strongly on the economy in 2020.