OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
South Africa
The COVID-19 outbreak adds to South Africa’s already severe economic challenges, with depressed growth, large fiscal deficits, increasing debt and high social vulnerabilities. Strict containment measures have cut production in key sectors and led to a slump in demand. In the double-hit scenario, a new virus outbreak affecting South Africa and its trading partner countries will curtail exports, deepening the reduction in GDP to 8.2% in 2020 and limiting the recovery in 2021, with GDP growth at 0.6%. Persistent electricity shortages, rising government debt and policy uncertainty will continue to hold back investment and production. In the single-hit scenario, economic activity will fall by 7½per cent in 2020 before picking up progressively with GDP growth of 2½per cent in 2021.
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