OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Indonesia
Following the outbreak of COVID-19, GDP is projected to contract in 2020, for the first time since the 1997 Asian crisis, by 2.8% or 3.9% depending on the scenario. The recovery will be subdued, with employment and income losses holding back private consumption, and by end-2021, GDP is projected to be 8% to 10% below its pre-crisis trend level depending on whether a second global wave of infections occurs later in 2020. The socio-economic consequences of the recession will be severe, notably for lower middle class groups, which are at great risk of falling back into poverty.
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