The single hit scenario assumes that the 10-week general lockdown, followed by some targeted lockdowns, succeeds in avoiding an acute health crisis. In the double-hit scenario, a renewed virus outbreak will require a new general shutdown in the autumn. New restrictions on internal migration and disruptions in supply chains would have severe consequences on activity and income while external demand would falter again. In this case, GDP is projected to fall by 7.3% in FY 2020-21, compared to 3.7% in the single-hit scenario. The poor, informal workers and small enterprises will suffer disproportionately; weak bank and corporate portfolio positions will keep the investment rate low, weighing on growth prospects. Inflation remains under control given economic slack and low oil prices. Public deficit will spike, reflecting faltering tax receipts and needed spending to support people, banks and small enterprises.