Lockdown measures to suppress the COVID‑19 pandemic have led to a major recession. If a second pandemic wave takes place later this year (the double-hit scenario), GDP is projected to contract sharply by 11.5% in 2020, and the unemployment rate will exceed 12% by end-2020, despite widespread use of short-time work schemes. If the virus remains contained after the end of lockdowns in spring 2020 (the single-hit scenario), GDP will fall by over 9% this year, the unemployment rate will reach double digits and average Maastricht public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by the end of the projection horizon. Substantial monetary and fiscal support will underpin the recovery once the lockdowns are lifted, but output and employment will still be much below pre-pandemic levels by end‑2021, especially in the double-hit scenario, heightening risks of persistent scarring effects, including larger divergence across the area.