OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Estonia
The COVID-19 outbreak is having a sharp impact on the economy. A second virus outbreak would delay the return of consumption and investment, which, together with the impact of virus confinement measures, could reduce real GDP by 10% in 2020. If the virus outbreak subsides by the summer, there would be a quicker recovery in consumer and business confidence and the fall in output would be lower, at 8.4% in 2020. Virus containment measures have been successful and widespread testing is readying the economy to open up. The large rise in unemployment is concerning given that it may erode the substantial activation of disadvantaged workers that has occurred in recent years.
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