The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a large decline in output. Despite a shorter shutdown than in many countries, private consumption and investment have slumped. GDP is expected to fall by 10% in 2020 if there is another virus outbreak later in the year and by 7.7% if the pandemic outbreak subsides by the summer. In the double-hit scenario, domestic demand will rebound only slowly due to low confidence. Private consumption will also be affected by higher unemployment. In the single-hit scenario, domestic demand should rebound more rapidly. In both scenarios, exports will recover only slowly, as foreign demand will remain weak, while unemployment will increase as the use of short‑time work schemes declines.