Containment measures to curb the pandemic and associated uncertainty will cause a sharp contraction in economic activity, by more than 7% in 2020 if there is another virus outbreak later in the year (the double‑hit scenario) and by almost 6% if further shutdown measures are avoided (the single-hit scenario). A second outbreak would result in significant scars from prolonged unemployment and many bankrupt businesses, delaying the recovery. In the single‑hit scenario, the brief and more limited shutdown than in other OECD countries combined with sizeable government support will limit economic and well‑being costs. In both scenarios, favourable export specialisation partly weathers the initial trade disruptions, but eventually external demand will largely determine the recovery path.