Economic activity is projected to drop by more than 11% in 2020 if there is a renewed virus outbreak (the double‑hit scenario as foreign tourism, which collapsed with the crisis, will be down until the end of the year. In the single-hit scenario, where further outbreaks are avoided, GDP will fall less as growth in Europe and the United States recovers and international travel resumes more rapidly. Government spending partially compensates for the decline in household consumption and business investment. Debt will remain below levels reached after the 2009 financial crisis. Despite a relatively resilient labour market, the unemployment rate will peak later this year at over 9% in both scenarios.