The pandemic will push the economy into a severe recession in 2020, driven by the global contraction, the fall in tourism, lower oil prices and the necessary domestic confinement measures taken. GDP would fall by 8.6% this year if there is another outbreak later in the year (the double-hit scenario). If further outbreaks are avoided (the single-hit scenario), the economy would contract by 7.5%, with a recovery in the second half of the year led by exports and consumption. In both scenarios, the level of GDP would remain lower than at end-2019, as it will take some time for the tourism and export sectors to return to pre-pandemic levels. The poor and vulnerable, including informal workers, will be particularly hard hit by the recession.