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2023 OECD Economic Surveys: Croatia 2023

image of OECD Economic Surveys: Croatia 2023

Croatia has navigated well the COVID-19 crisis and the price shocks following Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine. It has achieved robust output growth, rising employment and improving well-being, although inflation has surged. Integration into the euro- and Schengen areas at the start of 2023 are testament to progress, and are providing a further fillip to the economy. Ensuring that fiscal policy is counter-cyclical and that lending supports productive investments can help contain inflationary pressures and sustain growth. Croatia’s ongoing and ambitious reforms and investments must continue for incomes to converge with OECD levels while also preparing for climate change. Reducing regulatory burdens, more responsive judicial processes, addressing corruption risks and improving the performance of state-owned enterprises can foster a more dynamic business environment with stronger growth by higher productivity firms. A big push to strengthen adults’ skills would ensure that employers can fill high-skilled positions and support rising incomes. Better engaging younger adults in work, encouraging older adults to work until the full retirement age, and attracting needed skills through immigration would reduce poverty risks, raise productivity and help Croatia adapt to an ageing population.

SPECIAL FEATURES: IMPROVING THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT; A BETTER PERFORMING LABOUR MARKET

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Executive summary

Croatia’s strong recovery from the COVID crisis was slowed in 2022 by surging inflation and weaker global growth. Growth ahead will be supported by recovering household real disposable incomes arising from wage and employment growth, strong services exports, and by expanding investment (Table 1). Integration in the euro and Schengen areas provides a further fillip to external demand. Limited spare capacity, notably from skill shortages, is constraining output growth. Returning inflation to low rates while expanding the economy’s productive potential will be key to sustaining economic growth.

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