OECD Employment Outlook 2024
The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market
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The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will have profound impacts on the labour market and the jobs of millions of workers. Aggregate effects on employment are estimated to be limited. But many jobs will be lost in the shrinking high-emission industries, while many others will be created in the expanding low-emission activities. This edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the transition (“green-driven jobs”), including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them to jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers out of them towards new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. Particular attention is devoted to upskilling and reskilling strategies to facilitate workers’ transition into fast-growing, green-driven occupations. The distributive impacts of climate-change mitigation policies are also examined, with a focus on carbon pricing and options to redistribute its tax revenue to those most impacted. As usual, the first chapter of the Outlook assesses recent labour market developments (including wage trends), but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.
Steady as we go: Treading the tightrope of wage recovery as labour markets remain resilient
This chapter provides an overview of recent labour market developments, with a focus on wage dynamics. The resilience of OECD labour markets is analysed, focussing especially on the evolution of labour market tightness and gender gaps. Real wage growth, including at the minimum wage, is also examined and compared with the dynamics of profits, to investigate whether the latter have started to buffer some of the increases in labour costs as wages recover their purchasing power. Beyond wages, the chapter also provides an update of the three key indicators of the OECD job quality framework across countries.
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