OECD Employment Outlook 2024
The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market
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The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will have profound impacts on the labour market and the jobs of millions of workers. Aggregate effects on employment are estimated to be limited. But many jobs will be lost in the shrinking high-emission industries, while many others will be created in the expanding low-emission activities. This edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the transition (“green-driven jobs”), including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them to jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers out of them towards new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. Particular attention is devoted to upskilling and reskilling strategies to facilitate workers’ transition into fast-growing, green-driven occupations. The distributive impacts of climate-change mitigation policies are also examined, with a focus on carbon pricing and options to redistribute its tax revenue to those most impacted. As usual, the first chapter of the Outlook assesses recent labour market developments (including wage trends), but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.
The jobs that will make the net-zero transition: Who holds them and are they good?
The policies that OECD countries are adopting to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will have a significant impact on labour markets: jobs in high-emission industries will be reduced, new opportunities will emerge in climate‑friendlier sectors, and many existing occupations will be transformed. Climate change itself will affect labour demand and working conditions, mainly through rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. This chapter focuses on the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the net-zero transition and compares them with jobs concentrated in high-emission industries. In addition to looking at the characteristics of the workers who hold these jobs and where they are located, the chapter delves into the quality of these jobs by analysing their wages, labour market security and quality of the working environment.
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