OECD Employment Outlook 2024
The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market
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The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will have profound impacts on the labour market and the jobs of millions of workers. Aggregate effects on employment are estimated to be limited. But many jobs will be lost in the shrinking high-emission industries, while many others will be created in the expanding low-emission activities. This edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the transition (“green-driven jobs”), including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them to jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers out of them towards new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. Particular attention is devoted to upskilling and reskilling strategies to facilitate workers’ transition into fast-growing, green-driven occupations. The distributive impacts of climate-change mitigation policies are also examined, with a focus on carbon pricing and options to redistribute its tax revenue to those most impacted. As usual, the first chapter of the Outlook assesses recent labour market developments (including wage trends), but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.
Skills for the green transition
Analysing skills in the context of the net-zero transition is crucial as it helps identify mismatches between existing workforce competences and those demanded by emerging green activities. Addressing these gaps through training and education ensures a smoother transition, but policies need to be carefully designed. To this end, this chapter explores the skill requirements of occupations playing a key role in the net-zero transition and compares them with those of emission-intensive jobs. Skill distances between different types of occupations are also examined to identify feasible job transitions and relevant retraining needs. Finally, good practices in designing and implementing targeted policies to foster skills for the green transition are examined.
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