OECD Employment Outlook 2024
The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market
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The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will have profound impacts on the labour market and the jobs of millions of workers. Aggregate effects on employment are estimated to be limited. But many jobs will be lost in the shrinking high-emission industries, while many others will be created in the expanding low-emission activities. This edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the transition (“green-driven jobs”), including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them to jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers out of them towards new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. Particular attention is devoted to upskilling and reskilling strategies to facilitate workers’ transition into fast-growing, green-driven occupations. The distributive impacts of climate-change mitigation policies are also examined, with a focus on carbon pricing and options to redistribute its tax revenue to those most impacted. As usual, the first chapter of the Outlook assesses recent labour market developments (including wage trends), but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.
Job displacement in high-emission industries: Implications for the net-zero transition
The net-zero transition will create new job opportunities in low-emission activities but also increase the risk of job loss in high-emission activities. Concerns about job loss are understandable given the persistent earnings losses associated with displacement. In addition, these concerns risk undermining public support for climate change mitigation policies. Developing effective policies to support displaced workers is therefore not only crucial to alleviate the consequences of job displacement but also to ensure that concerns about job loss do not result in a backlash stalling progress towards net-zero emissions. To inform the development of such policies, this chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the consequences of job displacement in high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission industries using harmonised linked employer-employee data from 14 OECD countries and provides a detailed discussion of policies to support workers who lose their job as a result of the net-zero transition.
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