OECD Employment Outlook 2024
The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market
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The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will have profound impacts on the labour market and the jobs of millions of workers. Aggregate effects on employment are estimated to be limited. But many jobs will be lost in the shrinking high-emission industries, while many others will be created in the expanding low-emission activities. This edition of the OECD Employment Outlook examines the characteristics of the jobs that are likely to thrive because of the transition (“green-driven jobs”), including their attractiveness in terms of job quality, and compares them to jobs in high-emission industries that tend to shrink. The cost of job displacement in these latter industries is assessed along with the trajectories of workers out of them towards new opportunities, and the labour market policies that can facilitate job reallocation. Particular attention is devoted to upskilling and reskilling strategies to facilitate workers’ transition into fast-growing, green-driven occupations. The distributive impacts of climate-change mitigation policies are also examined, with a focus on carbon pricing and options to redistribute its tax revenue to those most impacted. As usual, the first chapter of the Outlook assesses recent labour market developments (including wage trends), but also provides an update of the OECD Job Quality indicators.
エグゼクティブ・サマリー
この一年間、労働市場は堅調さを維持しており、雇用は記録的高水準、失業率は記録的低水準になっているOECD加盟国は多い。男性よりも女性の就業率の方が、パンデミック前の水準と比べて改善しているというのも加盟国の大多数でみられる現象である。労働参加率は、一部例外もあるが高齢者を中心に引き続き上昇した。労働需給の逼迫度合いは緩和しつつあるものの、依然として高い水準で推移している。
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